May 23rd, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on May 23, 2024
8:20 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5307 to 5237, quickly hit 5342 (day’s high, new all-time high!), then fell the rest of the day to 5257 (day’s low) and closed at 5268.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: The NYMO closed at -47 vs a lower BB at -30. This is an NYMO based SP500 Buy Trigger. It requires an NYMO close back inside the lower BB to confirm.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2 (Apr-June) and finally a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec, Jan and Feb), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) count is that minor 1 of major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV completed 5342. The minor 2 correction is underway and should retrace to the 38%/50% Fibonacci targets of 5195 to 5146. The drop from 4342 to 4257 is (w) of minor 2. The (x) of minor 2 wave should bounce to the 50% Fib at 5300, before (c) of minor 2 drops below 5257. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid below 5342.
- The alternate (blue) count is that minor 1 completed at 5325 and the minor 2 wave played out as an expanded flat wave, where (a) of minor was at 5283, (b) of minor 2 was at 5342 and (c) of minor 2 completed at 5257 or will move slightly lower to the 23% Fib at 5253. The minor 3 wave up should be underway or will be underway soon. Note: The alternate (blue) count would be confirmed on a break above 5342.
House Keeping: Beginning tomorrow, Friday May 24th, I will begin the summer period from Memorial Day to Labor without Friday blog updates. Also, Monday May 27th is the Memorial Day Holiday and thus the US Markets will be closed. The next blog update will be on Tuesday, May 28th.
Enjoy the long Holiday Weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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