May 15th, 2024: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on May 15, 2024
7:10 pm EST: New all-time high of 5312! The SP-500 gapped from 5246 to 5263, rose to 5280, dropped to 5263 (day’s low) and then rallied into the close to hit 5312 (day’s high) and closed at 5308.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: On Monday, May 6th, the NYMO closed at +65! On Friday, May 3rd, the NYMO closed at +43. On Thursday, May 2nd the NYMO closed above +20 and higher than (+25 vs +21) when the SP500 closed at 5116 on Monday, April 29th. The NYMO is leading the SP500 price and is above +20, which are both bullish.
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: On Monday, May 6th, the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative closed at a new all-time high! On Friday, May 3rd the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative is near the high set in late March with the SP500 at 5265. On Thursday, May 2nd the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative closed higher than when the SP500 closed at 5116 on Monday, April 29th. The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative leading the SP500 price is bullish and the SP500 price will typically move above the previous all-time high (i.e. above 5265) in the short-term. $NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2 (Apr-June) and finally a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec, Jan and Feb), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV completed at 4954 and major [5]-P3-C3 wave up is underway with the major [5] target at 6069, where [5]=[1]. Within major [2], the minor 1 of major [5] wave is headed for 5345. Wave minute (1) of minor 1 reached 5089, minute (2) dipped to 4991, and minute (3) completed at 5240, just below where (3)=2.0(1) at 5261. The minute (4) wave dropped to 5210 and now the minute (5) wave is headed for 5345, where (5)=(1), to complete the minor 1 wave. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 5210.
- The alternate (blue) count is that minute (3) of minor 1 completed at 5312, where (3)=2.38(1). The minute (4) should target the 23% Fib retrace at 5238 before minute (5) reaches 5373, where (5)=(1).
House Keeping: I’m going to be out of town traveling to western Michigan the next few days. The next blog update will be on Monday, May 20th.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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