April 10th, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on April 10, 2024
4:05 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 5210 to 5168, dropped to 5139 (day’s low), traded sideways below 5168 and closed at 5160.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: The NYMO closed near -47 vs a -48 lower BB on Wednesday, April 10th. Thus there is NOT a NYMO based SP500 Buy Signal trigger.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2 (Apr-June) and finally a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec, Jan and Feb), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) count is that minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 wave up is underway and should continue to grind higher during year 2024 to a target at 5798, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. (Note: that on the daily chart the large Cup & Handle Pattern has a target at 5722 on the break above 4607). Within minor 3, the first minute (1) completed at 5265. Now the minute (2) wave pull-back is underway. There is potential minute (2) completion target at c=a = 5106 (hit 5139 so far). Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4682
- The alternate (blue) wave is the minute (1) of minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 is topping out here at 5265. That should mean a minute (2) wave pull-back towards the 50% Fib retrace at 4978 into the late May to early June time frame. The first wave w-(2) should pull-back to about the 5106 area (hit 5139 so far), then a b-(2) bounce to the 50% at 5185 and finally a c-(3) down to the 50% Fib retrace target of 4978. Note: The alternate (blue) count remains valid below the 5265 high.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
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