April 4th, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on April 4, 2024
6:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up 5212 to 5242, traded higher most of the day hitting 4256 (day’s high), then late in day dropped rapidly to 5146 (day’s low) and closed at 5147.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: The NYMO closed at -35 vs a -36 lower BB on Thursday, April 4th (i.e. NOT a NYMO based SP500 Buy Signal). Also when the NYMO closes below -20 and not yet below the lower BB, there typically is ways to go before the SP500 will bottom
- VIX: The VIX closed at 16.35 vs 15.72 upper BB. This sets up a potential VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal. However, it’s only step 1 of 3 step process.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2 (Apr-June) and finally a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: When the SP500 is up for the 3 months (Dec, Jan and Feb), since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16%. Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) count is that minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 wave up is underway and should continue to grind higher during year 2024 to a target at 5798, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. (Note: that on the daily chart the large Cup & Handle Pattern has a target at 5722 on the break above 4607). Within minor 3, the first minute (1) completed at 5265. Now the minute (2) wave pull-back is underway. There is potential minute (2) completion target at c=1.62a = 5125.
- The alternate (blue) wave is the minute (1) of minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 is topping out here at 5265. That should mean a minute (2) wave pull-back towards the 50% Fib retrace at 4978 into the late May to early June time frame. The first wave w-(2) should pull-back to about the 5125 area (hit 5146 so far), then a b-(2) bounce to the 50% at 5195 and finally a c-(3) down to the 50% Fib etrace target of 4978. Note: The alternate (blue) count remains valid below the 5265 high.
House Keeping: I’m out of town from Friday to Tuesday to attend the NCAA Men’s Basketball Final Four Championship in Phoenix, AZ. The next blog update will be Wednesday, March 10th.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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