March 19th, 2024: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on March 19, 2024
4:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 5149 to 5142, dropped to 5131 (day’s low), then rose steady all to hit 5180 (day’s high) and close at 5178.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYSE A-D Cumulative: The NSYE A-D Line Cumulative (market breadth indicator) closed at an all-time high on March, Mar 13th even with the SP500 closing in the red at 5165. This typically means the SP500 will make a new all-time high (above 5189) in the short-term.
- NYMO: Closed back above the zero line on Tuesday, March 18th.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March and a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: When the SP500 is up for the 3 months (Dec, Jan and Feb), since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16%. Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) count is that minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 wave up is underway and should continue to grind higher during year 2024 to a target at 5798, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. (Note: that on the daily chart the large Cup & Handle Pattern has a target at 5722 on the break above 4607). Within minor 3, the first minute (1) completed at 5048, where v=1.62i. The minute (2) wave or minor 3 pull-back completed at 4920, just above the 38% Fib at 4909. The minute (3) wave up is underway with a target at 5481, where (3)=1.62(1). Within minute (3), the wave i-(3) completed at 5150. The wave ii-(3) pull-back is underway that could have completed at 5057 or could drop to the 50%/62% Fib range of 5037 to 5007 (alt blue labels). Once wave ii-(3) completes, wave iii-(3) will head above 5189 towards 5430, where iii=1.62*i. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid above 5091 and the alternate (blue) count is valid above 4920. Above 5189, the primary (white/green) wave count is confirmed and below 5091 the alternate (blue) count is confirmed.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
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