February 21st, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on February 21, 2024
5:45 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4975 to 4965, traded sideways most of the day, dropped to 4946 (day’s low), and rallied into the close to end at 4982.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- VIX: On Tuesday, Feb 20th the VIX closed at 15.42 above the upper BB of 15.38. This triggers step 1 of the VIX Sell/SP500 Buy Signal. On Wednesday, Feb 21st Step 2 completed with the VIX closing back below its upper BB. The final confirming Step 3 is a Red VIX close tomorrow.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March and a big rally into year end.
SP-500 Seasonality for 2024:
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) count is that minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 wave up is underway and should continue to grind higher during year 2024 to a target at 5798, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. (Note: that on the daily chart the large Cup & Handle Pattern has a target at 5722 on the break above 4607). Within minor 3, the first minute (1) completed at 5048, where v=1.62i. The minute (2) wave or minor 3 pull-back completed at 4920, just above the 38% Fib at 4909. The minute (3) wave up is underway with a target at 5481, where (3)=1.62(1). Within minute (3), the wave i-(3) target is at 5100. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid above 4920.
- The alternate (blue) count is that the minute (2) of minor 3 wave will continue to play out lower as a flat and re-test 4920 or break below and reach the 50%/62% Fib area at 4865/4821. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid above the minor 2 low at 4682.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
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