February 14th, 2024: SP-500, QQQ, and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on February 14, 2024
5:05 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4953 to 4973, traded up to 4992, dropped to 4956 (day’s low), then rallied to 5002 (day’s high) and closed at 5000.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- VIX: On Tuesday, Feb 13th, the VIX closed at 15.85 above its upper BB of 15.10. This an initial trigger for the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal. On Wednesday, Feb 14th the VIX closed at 14.38 back below lower BB of 15.02, confirming step 2 of the siganl.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March and a big rally into year end.
SP-500 Seasonality for 2024:
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P3-C3 completed at 4793 in late December 2023 and minor 2 retraced to 4682 in mid-January in 2024. The minor 3 wave is underway should continue to grind higher during year 2024 to a target at 5798, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. (Note: that on the daily chart the large Cup & Handle Pattern has a target at 5722 on the break above 4607). Within minor 3, the first minute (1) completed at 5048, where v=1.62i. The minute (2) wave pull-back should take the SP-500 down to a 38%/50% Fib retrace in the 4909 to 4865 area before minute (3) or minor 3 heads much higher. Within the minute (2) wave, the a-(2) wave completed at 4920. The b-(2) wave has retraced to 5002, just above the 62% Fib at 4999. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid below 5048. Above 5048, the minor (2) wave completed at 4920 and the minute (3) wave up is underway.
- The alternate (blue) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P3-C3 completed at 5048. The minor 2 wave should retrace to the 38%/50% Fib targets at 4693/4576. Wave i-(a) of minor 2 complete at 4920 and the wave ii-(a) of minor 2 has retraced to 5002, just above the 62% Fib. Assuming wave ii-(a) of minor 2 complete at 5002, the wave iii-(a) target is at 4845, where iii=1.23i.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
You must be logged in to post a comment.