January 17th, 2024: SP500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on January 17, 2024
5:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down 4765 to 4740, dropped to 4727, rose to 4743 (day’s high), dropped to 4715 (day’s low) and closed at 4739.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: On Thursday, Jan 11th the NYMO closed near -30 with an SP500 close near the recent highs at 4780. This NYMO close today is relatively weaker (-DIV) than the -30 close from last Thursday January 4th, with an SP500 close below 4700. It’s also a warning sign that the NYMO could not rally past the zero line with the SP500 making a new high today.
- $BPSPX (https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX): On Wednesday, January 17th the SP500 Bullish Percentage Index ($BPSPX) closed at 69.80. A close below 70 after closing above 80 typically signals a significant correction is underway.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability!
- Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT): The ZBT signal fired at the close on Nov 3rd, 2023. This is very bullish long-term signal. ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in January, then a drop into mid-March and a big rally into year end.
SP-500 Seasonality for 2024:
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P3-C3 is headed for the all-time high above 4819. Within minor 1, minute (1) completed at 4391. The minute (2) completed as an expanded flat wave at 4344. Wave minute (3) completed at 4778, just below the (3)=1.61(1) extension at 4808. The minute (4) wave completed at 4682, just above the 23% Fib of 4678. The minute (5) wave is underway with at target range of (5)=0.62(1)=4860 (blue labels) to (5)=(1)=4969 to complete the minor 1 wave. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4682.
- The alternate (red) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P3-C3 peaked at the end of December at 4793. The 38%/50% Fib retrace target for the minor 2 wave is at 4531/4449. The first minute (a) wave ended at 4682. The minute (b) retraced to 4802 just above the 100% Fib at 4793. Next the minute (c) wave should break below 4682. Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 4802.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
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