January 12th, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on January 12, 2024
5:00 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up 4780 to 4791, quickly hit 4802 (day’s high), dropped to 4769 (day’s low), then drifted sideways and closed at 4784.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: On Thursday, Jan 11th the NYMO closed near -30 with an SP500 close near the recent highs at 4780. This NYMO close today is relatively weaker (-DIV) than the -30 close from last Thursday January 4th, with an SP500 close below 4700. It’s also a warning sign that the NYMO could not rally past the zero line with the SP500 making a new high today.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability!
- Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT): The ZBT signal fired at the close on Nov 3rd, 2023. This is very bullish long-term signal. ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in January, then a drop into mid-March and a big rally into year end.
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P3-C3 is headed for the all-time high above 4819. Within minor 1, minute (1) completed at 4391. The minute (2) completed as an expanded flat wave at 4344. Wave minute (3) completed at 4778, just below the (3)=1.61(1) extension at 4808. The minute (4) wave played out as a flat wave, reaching 4682 just above the typeical 23% Fib retrace of a wave (4). The minute (5) wave above 4793 is underway with at target range of (5)=0.62(1)=4860 (blue labels) to (5)=(1)=4969 to complete the minor 1 wave. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4682.
- The alternate (red) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P3-C3 peaked at the end of December at 4793. The 38%/50% Fib retrace target for the minor 2 wave is at 4531/4449. The first minute (a) wave ended at 4682. The minute (b) retraced to 4802 just above the 100% Fib at 4793. Next the minute (c) wave should break below 4682. Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 4802.
House Keeping: Stock Market is closed for the MLK Holiday on Monday, January 15th. The next blog update will be on Tuesday, January 16th.
Have a great 3-day weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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