August 21st, 2023: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on August 21, 2023
5:55 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 4371 to 4380, quickly hit 4396, dropped to 4360 (day’s low), then rallied to 4407 (day’s high) and closed near the high at 4400.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: On Thurs, Aug 17th the NYMO closed at -96 below its lower BB, setting up a SP500 Buy signal trigger. The NYMO is extremely over-sold below -80 and closed below its lower BB two day’s in row. NYMO levels between -80 and -100 typically set key bottoms.
- SP500: On Thurs, Aug 17th, the SP500 closed at 4479 below the lower BB, setting up a potential SP500 Buy signal trigger.
- VIX: On Thurs, Aug 17th, the VIX closed above its upper BB, setting up a potential VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal trigger.
- Trifecta SP500 Buy Signal: On Friday, Aug 19th, the Trifecta Buy Signal was confirmed with all three indicators listed above closing back within their respective BB’s. Note: The VIX close red on Monday, Aug 21st, was the final secondary confirmation of the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- 200-day SMA at 3940 (3-8-23): The SP-500 closed above a rising 200-day SMA (3940) for the first time since April 2022.
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 with a 10th day close above 0.615.
- SP500 Seasonality: The past 20-year seasonality shows a July peak, August consolidation and then a continued rally into the end of the year.
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is minor 4 of major [1]-P3-C3 is complete at 4335, just above the 38% Fib target of 4287. There is a (c)=1.38(w) target at 4330. The minor 5 wave is headed above 4607 with a M5=M1 target at 4943. Wave minor (1) of minor 5 should reach the 4500 area. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 4335.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 4 of major [1]-P3-C3 is completing minute (c) of an (a)-(b)-(c) zig-zag that will take the minor 4 to near the 38% Fib at 4287. The minute (c)=1.62(a) target is at 4295. The wave (4) of previous degree target is at 4323. Note: The alt (blue) count is valid above the minor 1 high at 4100.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
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