August 15th, 2023: SP500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on August 15, 2023
5:05 pm EST: The SP500 gapped down from 4490 to 4479, dropped to 4444, then rallied to 4462, dropped to 4432 (day’s low) and closed near the lower at 4437.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- Chart Pattern: Potential Bullish Falling Wedge with a target of 4782.
- NYMO: The NYMO closed below -70 and below its lower BB, setting up an SP500 Buy trigger.
- VIX: The VIX continues to make lower closing highs vs lower SP500 closes, which is a potential -DIV on the VIX (bullish for the SP500).
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- 200-day SMA at 3940 (3-8-23): The SP-500 closed above a rising 200-day SMA (3940) for the first time since April 2022.
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 with a 10th day close above 0.615.
- SP500 Seasonality: The past 20-year seasonality shows a July peak, August consolidation and then a continued rally into the end of the year.
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is minor 4 of major [1]-P3-C3 is complete or nearly complete at 4432, just above the 23% Fib target of 4413. The minor 5 wave headed above 4607 is underway with a M5=M1 target at 5018.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 4 of major [1]-P3-C3 is forming a triangle, with the first leg minute (a) complete or nearly complete at 4432, just above the 23% Fib at 4413. This alt (blue) count will buy more time (not price) below the recent 4607 high before launching into the minor 5 wave up above 4607.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
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