August 7th, 2023: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on August 7, 2023
9:00 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 4478 to 4491, hit 4510, trade sideways above 4491 (day’s low), rallied to 4520 (day’s high) and then closed 4518.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- VIX: On Friday, Aug 4th the VIX closed above its upper BB and on Monday, Aug 7th the VIX closed back inside its BB. These steps 1 and 2 of the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal. A red VIX close tomorrow (Aug 8th confirms the signal).
- NYMO: On Thurs, Aug 3rd, the NYMO closed at -40 vs a -29 lower BB (two consecutive closes below the BB). A close back above the BB is a SP500 Buy signal (This occurred on Friday, Aug 4th with NYMO +DIV wrt to the SP500).
- SP-500 Daily Bollinger Band: The SP-500 closed 10 points above is daily BB on Tuesday July 18th. This condition in early Feb, early April and late June caused a sideways move followed by significant pull-back.
- NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Exposure Index: Hit 102 on Thursday, July 28th. Indicating investors are leveraged above 100% long. Readings above 100 typical occur near tops. NAAIM Exposure Index | The National Association of Active Investment Managers – NAAIM
- Seasonality: SP500 Seasonality is weak (sideways to down) during August.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- 200-day SMA at 3940 (3-8-23): The SP-500 closed above a rising 200-day SMA (3940) for the first time since April 2022.
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 with a 10th day close above 0.615.
- Seasonality (March to December): The SP-500 past 20-years of seasonality shows a low in March and a rally the rest of the year.
- VIX: VIX closed below 15 on June 2nd at 14.65, which is a multi-year low. A VIX close below 15, typically occurs at the beginning of a cyclical bull market.
- Daily Chart Support: On Monday June 26th the SP500 drop to 4328 is a back-test of the August 2022 high at 4326. This 4326 level has held and that is very bullish.
- NYSE Cumulative: On Wednesday July 12th the NYSE Cumulative a new recovery high confirming the SP500 new high at 4488. $NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- Daily Chart Momentum Indicators of MACD and RSI: Showing a potential -DIV with the new price high at 4578.
- Weekly Chart Momentum Indicator of RSI: Showing a potential -DIV with the new price high at 4578 (note this technical condition is rare and typically leads to significant pull-back).
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is minor 3 of major [1]-P3-C3 is complete at 4607, just above the target of M3=1.38M1 = 4603. The minor 4 wave is underway with 23%/38% Fib retrace target area of 4410 to 4281. Minute (w) of minor 4 looks to have completed at 4474 chart just above the 4448 support area. The minute (x) of minor 4 should retrace to the 50%/62% Fib area at 4540 to 4556 before the minute (y) wave down to at least the 23% Fib at 4410 completes the double zig-zag for minor 4. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid below 4607.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that minute (3) of minor 3 of major [1]-P3-C3 completed at 4607. This correction to 4474 is a simple a-b-c zig-zag, where c=1.38a at 4486 for minute (4) of minor 3. Wave minute (5) of minor 3 should continue higher than 4607 to the minor 3 =1.62*minor 1 target at 4749. Note: The alternate (blue) count as labeled is valid above 4474.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
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