August 2nd, 2023: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on August 2, 2023
7:15 pm EST: The SP500 gapped down from 4577 to 4551, dropped to 4506 and closed at 4513.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- VIX: On Wed, Aug 2nd the VIX opened and closed above its upper BB. This typically means a lower low is next before any significant rebound.
- Chart Pattern: The SP500 15-min chart shows a bullish falling wedge (and Triangle) pattern with a target at 4568 (wedge) to 4588 (triangle). Both targets were hit at 4578!
- SP-500 Daily Bollinger Band: The SP-500 closed 10 points above is daily BB on Tuesday July 18th. This condition in early Feb, early April and late June caused a sideways move followed by significant pull-back.
- NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Exposure Index: Hit 102 on Thursday, July 28th. Indicating investors are leveraged above 100% long. Readings above 100 typical occur near tops. NAAIM Exposure Index | The National Association of Active Investment Managers – NAAIM
- Seasonality: SP500 Seasonality is weak (sideways to down) during August.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- 200-day SMA at 3940 (3-8-23): The SP-500 closed above a rising 200-day SMA (3940) for the first time since April 2022.
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 with a 10th day close above 0.615.
- Seasonality (March to December): The SP-500 past 20-years of seasonality shows a low in March and a rally the rest of the year.
- VIX: VIX closed below 15 on June 2nd at 14.65, which is a multi-year low. A VIX close below 15, typically occurs at the beginning of a cyclical bull market.
- Daily Chart Support: On Monday June 26th the SP500 drop to 4328 is a back-test of the August 2022 high at 4326. This 4326 level has held and that is very bullish.
- NYSE Cumulative: On Wednesday July 12th the NYSE Cumulative a new recovery high confirming the SP500 new high at 4488. $NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- Daily Chart Momentum Indicators of MACD and RSI: Showing a potential -DIV with the new price high at 4578.
- Weekly Chart Momentum Indicator of RSI: Showing a potential -DIV with the new price high at 4578 (note this technical condition is rare and typically leads to significant pull-back).
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is minor 3 of major [1]-P3-C3 is complete at 4607, just above the target of M3=1.38M1 = 4603. The minor 4 wave is underway with 23%/38% Fib retrace target area of 4410 to 4281. Minute (a) of minor 4 should target the 4394 pivot area. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid below 4607.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that minute (3) of minor 3 of major [1]-P3-C3 completed at 4607. This correction is a simple a-b-c, where c=a at 4516 for minute (4) of minor 3. Wave minute (5) of minor 3 should continue higher that 4607 to the minor 3 =1.62*minor 1 at 4749.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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