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June 5th, 2023: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 5, 2023

3:00 pm EST:  The SP500 opened flat from 4282, slowly moved up to 4299 (day’s high), then fell to 4267… gapped up from 4221 to 4241, quickly hit 4267, dipped to 4243 (day’s low), then rallied to 4281…

Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term)  Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. A SP500 Sell Signal Trifecta occurred on June 2nd: The SP500 daily price closed above its upper BB, The NYMO daily value closed above its BB and the VIX daily value closed below its BB. Typically, this leads to a pull-back of 3 to 5%.
  2. Seasonality (Mid-June to Mid-July): Shows weakness after an early to mid-June peak to test the mid-May low.

Key Technical Indicators (Long-Term):

  1. Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
  2. 200-day SMA at 3940 (3-8-23): The SP-500 closed above a rising 200-day SMA (3940) for the first time since April 2022.
  3. Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 with a 10th day close above 0.615.
  4. Seasonality (March to December): The SP-500 past 20-years of seasonality shows a low in March and a rally the rest of the year.
  5. VIX: VIX closed below 15 on June 2nd at 14.65, which is a multi-year low. A VIX close below 15, typically occurs at the beginning of a cyclical bull market.

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is a leading diagonal for major [1]-P3-C3. The completion of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 ended at 4100. The minor 2 wave completed at 3764 just below the 50% Fib of 3796. The minor 3 wave up looks to be ending where minor 3 = 0.88*minor1 at 4299 (Note: Max for an ED is M3=M1 at 4372). Once minor 3 ends, the minor 4 wave should drop to the 23%/38% Fib retrace area at 4176 to 4095. And finally, the minor 5 wave of major [1] should reach 4569, assuming the minor 4 low is at 4095 and minor 5 wave equals the minor 1 wave.

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM daly chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

QQQ daily chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

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