May 24th, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on May 24, 2023
5:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4146 to 4133, dropped to 4104 (day’s high), rallied to 4132 and closed at 4115.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- VIX: On 5-24-23, the VIX closed at 20.03 above the upper BB of 19.65. This triggers step 1 of the VIX Sell, SP500 signal. Step 2 is a VIX close back inside the upper BB. Step 3 is red VIX the next day.
- Seasonality (May to July): The SP-500 past 20 years of seasonality show weakness in the mid-May to early July time.
Key Technical Indicators (Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- 200-day SMA at 3940 (3-8-23): The SP-500 closed above a rising 200-day SMA (3940) for the first time since April 2022.
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 with a 10th day close above 0.615.
- Seasonality (March to December): The SP-500 past 20-years of seasonality shows a low in March and a rally the rest of the year.
Wave Counts:
- The primary (white/green) wave count is the completion of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 as a leading diagonal at 4100, where minute (5)>(3)>(1). The minor 2 wave completed at 3764 just below the 50% Fib of 3796. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minimum target of minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1 at 4512. Within minor 3, the minute (1) of minor 3 wave ended at 4195. The minute (2) wave pull-back reached 3809, which is the 88% Fib area of 3815. Wave minute (3) up is underway headed for (3)=1.38(1) at 4339. Within minute (1), wave i of minute (3) completed at 4187. Wave ii-(3) completed at 4048, just above the 38% Fib at 4032. Wave iii-(3) is underway with a very conservative target at iii=0.62i at 4282. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled is valid above 4048.
- The alternate (red) wave count is that this move up from 3809 to 4213 (so far) is a minor B of major [2]-P3-C3 wave. The B=A target is 4195 (flat wave) and the B=1.23A target is at 4283 (expanded flat wave). Thus, for minor B has reached 4213 and maybe compelete or needs one more push up to 4283 (alt blue). Once the minor B wave completes, the minor C of major [2] is headed for the 62% Fib at 3759. It other words, this false (B-wave) move is based on narrowing market breadth (see IWM) that will eventually fail. This scenario is based on a mild economic recession occurring in Q4-2023 to Q1-2024.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
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