May 23rd, 2023: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on May 23, 2023
5:10 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4192 to 4177, dropped to 4173, rose to 4185 (day’s high), then fell the rest of the day to 4142 (day’s low) and closed at 4146.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: On 5-18-23 the NYMO closed above the zero line at +10. On 5-19-23 the NYMO closed at -4. On 5-22-23 the NYMO closed near +10. On 5-23-23 the NYMO closed back below zero near -5. The NYMO needs to close above zero and then above +20 to be meaningful.
- NYSE Up Volume: Closed (5-17-23) as a 81% up volume day. Closed (5-18-23) as a 56% up volume day. Failed to have back-to-back 80% up volume days, thus now break away momentum trigger.
- Seasonality (May to July): The SP-500 past 20 years of seasonality shown weakness in the mid-May to early July time.
Key Technical Indicators (Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- 200-day SMA at 3940 (3-8-23): The SP-500 closed above a rising 200-day SMA (3940) for the first time since April 2022.
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 with a 10th day close above 0.615.
- Seasonality (March to December): The SP-500 past 20-years of seasonality shows a low in March and a rally the rest of the year.
Wave Counts:
- The primary (white/green) wave count is the completion of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 as a leading diagonal at 4100, where minute (5)>(3)>(1). The minor 2 wave completed at 3764 just below the 50% Fib of 3796. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minimum target of minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1 at 4512. Within minor 3, the minute (1) of minor 3 wave ended at 4195. The minute (2) wave pull-back reached 3809, which is the 88% Fib area of 3815. Wave minute (3) up is underway headed for (3)=1.38(1) at 4339. Within minute (1), wave i of minute (3) completed at 4187. Wave ii-(3) completed at 4048, just above the 38% Fib at 4032. Wave iii-(3) is underway with a very conservative target at iii=0.62i at 4282. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled is valid above 4048.
- The alternate (red) wave count is that this move up from 3809 to 4213 (so far) is a minor B of major [2]-P3-C3 wave. The B=A target is 4195 (flat wave) and the B=1.23A target is at 4283 (expanded flat wave). Thus, for minor B has reached 4213 and maybe compelete. Once the minor B wave completes, the minor C of major [2] is headed for the 62% Fib at 3759. It other words, this false (B-wave) move is based on narrowing market breadth (see IWM) that will eventually fail. This scenario is based on a mild economic recession occurring in Q4-2023 to Q1-2024.
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
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