May 4th, 2023: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on May 4, 2023
6:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4091 to 4083, dropped to 4049, rose to 4074, drifted lower to 4048 (day’s low), rose to 4081 (day’s high), then drifted lower again to 4056 and closed 4061.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- VIX (5-4-23): The VIX closed at 20.09 vs an upper BB of 20.01. This triggers step 1 of the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal.
Key Technical Indicators (Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- 200-day SMA at 3940 (3-8-23): The SP-500 closed above a rising 200-day SMA (3940) for the first time since April 2022.
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 with a 10th day close above 0.615.
- Seasonality (March to December): The SP-500 past 20-years of seasonality shows a low in March and a rally the rest of the year.
Wave Counts:
- The primary (white/green) wave count is the completion of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 as a leading diagonal at 4100, where minute (5)>(3)>(1). The minor 2 wave completed at 3764 just below the 50% Fib of 3796. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minimum target of minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1 at 4512. Within minor 3, the minute (1) of minor 3 wave ended at 4195. The minute (2) wave pull-back reached 3809, which is the 88% Fib area of 3815. Wave minute (3) up is underway headed for (3)=1.38(1) at 4339. Within minute (1), wave i of minute (3) completed at 4187. Wave ii-(3) completed at 4048, just above the 38% Fib at 4032. Holding the 38% during a wave ii is very bullish. Wave iii-(3) is underway with a very conservative target at iii=0.62i at 4282. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled is valid above 3809.
- The alternate (blue) is that wave ii of minute (3) is underway headed to a 50%/62% Fib at 3998/3953. Wave a-ii ended at 4090 and wave b-ii rebounded to the 62% Fib at 4148. Now wave c-ii is headed to c=1.62a target at 3991. Note: The alternate (blue) count as labeled is valid above 3809.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
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