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March 21st, 2023: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 21, 2023

5:30 pm EST:  The SP-500 gapped from 3951 to 3976, rose to 3998, then dropped to 3971 (day’s low) and rallied to 4009 closed at 4002.

P2-C3 Price and Time Fibonacci Targets: The P1-C3 bull wave rose from 2192 to 4819 and lasted from end of March 2020 to beginning of January 2022 (21 months). Target for P2-C3: 50% Fib of Price and Time is at 3505 and 10.5 months (mid-Oct to mid-Nov 2022). (Primary count P2-C3 low at 3492 on Oct 13th, 2022).

Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term)  Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
  2. 200-day SMA at 3940 (3-8-23): The SP-500 closed above a rising 200-day SMA (3940) for the first time since April 2022. This confirms the P2-C3 bottom at 3492!
  3. Trifecta SP500 Buy Trigger (3-10-23): The SP500 closed below its lower BB, NYMO closed below its BB, and VIX closed above its BB.
  4. NYMO (-108) 3-13-23: Two consecutive closes below the lower BB and below -40, often leads to a large move up on day three.
  5. Friday (3-10-23) saw the Trifecta SP500 Buy Signal Triggered: a) Monday 3-13-23) saw the SP500 BB based SP500 Buy Signal confirmed. b) Tuesday 3-14-23 saw the NYMO BB based SP500 Buy Signal confirmed and c) Tuesday 3-14-23 saw the VIX Sell based SP50O Buy Signal confirm step 1 (no step 2 confirmation with green VIX Wed 3-15-23).

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is the completion of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 as a leading diagonal at 4100, where minute (5)>(3)>(1). The minor 2 wave completed at 3764 just below the 50% Fib of 3796. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minimum target of minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1 at 4512. Within minor 3, the minute (1) of minor 3 wave ended at 4195. The minute (2) wave pull-back reached 3809, which is the 88% Fib area of 3815. Wave minute (3) up is underway head for (3)=1.62(1) at 4507. Wave i of minute (3) is headed for the 4086 pivot area. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled is valid above 3809 as labeled.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

2 Responses to “March 21st, 2023: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Intra-day NYMO running near +10 with SP500 up at 4034.

    • pugsma said

      And just as I typed that the SP500 dropped 35 points to below 4000 and the NYMO turned down below zero.

      Things are still hanging in the balance here and the close today and especially on Thursday matters.

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