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March 14th, 2023: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 14, 2023

5:15 pm EST:  The SP-500 gapped up from 3855 to 3896, ran up to 3937 (day’s high), dropped to 3874 and rallied to closed at 3920.

P2-C3 Price and Time Fibonacci Targets: The P1-C3 bull wave rose from 2192 to 4819 and lasted from end of March 2020 to beginning of January 2022 (21 months). Target for P2-C3: 50% Fib of Price and Time is at 3505 and 10.5 months (mid-Oct to mid-Nov 2022). (Primary count P2-C3 low at 3492 on Oct 13th, 2022).

Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term)  Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. Chart Pattern (2-1-23): Potential Cup and Handle Pattern on the 4-hr chart with a target at 4708.
  2. Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
  3. 200-day SMA at 3940 (3-8-23): The SP-500 closed above a rising 200-day SMA (3940) for the first time since April 2022. This confirms the P2-C3 bottom at 3492!
  4. Trifecta SP500 Buy Trigger (3-10-23): The SP500 closed below its lower BB, NYMO closed below its BB, and VIX closed above its BB.
  5. NYMO (-108) 3-13-23: Two consecutive closes below the lower BB and below -40, often leads to a large move up on day three.
  6. Friday (3-10-23) saw the Trifecta SP500 Buy Signal Triggered:
    • a) Yesterday (Monday 3-13-23) saw the SP500 BB based SP500 Buy Signal confirmed.
    • b) Today (Tuesday 3-14-23) saw the NYMO BB based SP500 Buy Signal confirmed.
    • c) Today (Tuesday 3-14-23) saw the VIX Sell based SP50O Buy Signal confirm step 1 (needs red VIX tomorrow for confirming step 2).
SP500-Technical Analysis

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is the completion of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 as a leading diagonal at 4100, where minute (5)>(3)>(1). The minor 2 wave completed at 3764 just below the 50% Fib of 3796. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minimum target of minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1 at 4512. Within minor 3, the minute (1) of minor 3 wave ended at 4195. The minute (2) wave pull-back reached 3809, which is the 88% Fib area of 3815. Wave minute (3) up is underway head for (3)=1.62(1) at 4507. Wave i of minute (3) is headed for the 4086 pivot area. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled is valid above 3764.
  2. The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 2 of major [1]-P3-C3 is still on going and will target the 62% Fib retracement of minor 1 at 3723. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid above 3492.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

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