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January 4th, 2023: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 4, 2023

5:15 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3824 to 3840, quickly hit 3856, dropped to 3815 (day’s low), rallied to 3873 (day’s high), dropped to 3827 and closed at 3853.

P2-C3 Price and Time Fibonacci Targets: The P1-C3 wave rose from 2192 to 4819 and lasted from end of March 2020 to beginning of January 2022 (21 months). Targets for P2-C3:

  1. 50% Fib of Price and Time is at 3505 and 10.5 months (mid-Oct to mid-Nov 2022). (3492 Oct 2022)
  2. 62% Fib of Price and Time is at 3190 and 13 months (Jan to Feb 2023).

Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term)  Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. Chart Pattern (12-13-2022): Double Top at 4100, neckline at 3906 and target at 3712 (Hit 3764 on Dec 22nd)
  2. NYMO (12-28-22): The NYMO put in a ST +DIV over the pass 2-weeks with a a new SP500 closing low at 3783 on Dec 28th, 2022.
  3. NYMO (1-4-23): The NYMO closed above +20, which is typically an indicator of a new bull wave higher.

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is the completion of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 as a leading diagonal at 4100, where minute (5)>(3)>(1). The minor 2 wave completed at 3764 just below the 50% Fib of 3796. The initial minute (1) of minor 3 wave up should target at least the 3950 pivot area and likely the 4086 pivot area.  Note: The primary (white/green) is valid above 3764.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is that the minor 2 wave of major [1]-P2-C3 will retrace deeper to the 62%/78% Fib targets at 3723 to 3626. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid above the P2-C3 low at 3492.
  3. The alternate (red) wave count is that the P2-C3 wave that began in early 2022 is still ongoing and entering its final leg to new lows at the 62% Fib of price (3190) and time (Feb-Mar 2023). P2-C3 is tracing out a large double Zig-Zag, major [Y]-[X]-[Y]. Major [Y]-P2 completed in June at 3637 and major [X]-P2 completed at 4326 in August. The major [Y]-P2 wave lower has been underway since August and has a [Y]=[W] target of 3147. Within major [Y], minor A dropped to 3492 and minor B rose to 4101. Now minor C of major [Y] is headed below 3492, where minor C=A at 3267. Within minor C, minute (1) completed at 3764. The minute (2) wave up ended at 3878 just below the 3912 target for the 50% Fib retracement. The minute (3) wave lower is underway with at target at (3)=1.62(1) of 3366. Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 3878 and is confirmed on a break below 3492.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

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