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December 28th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on December 28, 2022

5:35 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 3829, rose quickly to hit 3848 (day’s high), then dropped steady to hit 3781 and closed near the low at 3783.

P2-C3 Price and Time Fibonacci Targets: The P1-C3 wave rose from 2192 to 4819 and lasted from end of March 2020 to beginning of January 2022 (21 months). Targets for P2-C3:

  1. 50% Fib of Price and Time is at 3505 and 10.5 months (mid-Oct to mid-Nov 2022). (3492 Oct 2022)
  2. 62% Fib of Price and Time is at 3190 and 13 months (Jan to Feb 2023).

Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term)  Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Chart Pattern: Double Top at 4100, neckline at 3906 and target at 3712 (Hit 3764 on Dec 22nd)

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is the completion of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 as a leading diagonal at 4100, where minute (5)>(3)>(1). The minor 2 wave may have completed at 3764 just below the 50% Fib of 3796 or might still need to test the 62% Fib retracement at 3723 (alt blue). The initial minute (1) of minor 3 wave up should target the 3950 pivot area.  Note: The primary (white/green) and alternate (blue) is valid for minor 2 above the P2 low at 3492.
  2. The alternate (red) wave count is that the P2-C3 wave that began in early 2022 is still ongoing and entering its final leg to new lows at the 62% Fib of price (3190) and time (Feb-Mar 2023). P2-C3 is tracing out a large double Zig-Zag, major [Y]-[X]-[Y]. Major [Y]-P2 completed in June at 3637 and major [X]-P2 completed at 4326 in August. The major [Y]-P2 wave lower has been underway since August and has a [Y]=[W] target of 3147. Within major [Y], minor A dropped to 3492 and minor B rose to 4101. Now minor C of major [Y] is headed below 3492, where minor C=A at 3267. Within minor C, minute (1) may have completed at 3764 or might need to test the 3727 pivot. Assuming minute (1) completed at 3764, the minute (2) wave up target is a 50% Fib retracement at 3912. Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 4101.

House Keeping: I have opened the enrollment for the 2023 Quarterly and Annual Premium Service: https://pugsma.com/2022/12/01/december-1st-2022-sign-up-for-2023-quarterly-or-annual-premium-service/#respond

A few notes: (Check your e-mail from Friday December 23rd for details).

  1. Pricing for 2023 remains the same as 2022.
  2. Discounted Annual Subscriptions (14% savings vs Quarterly) are only available during December each calendar year.
  3. I have decided to roll the Custom Chart Archive Service back into the Premium Service. Thus, the custom stock charts that I chose on my own to complete will be available to all Premium Service subscribers. This is bonus for 2023 at the same Premium Service price.
  4. I have kept the Custom Chart Technical Analysis Service for those that want to order personalized custom charts for a stock that they request.

Thank you for your business and support during 2022 and for many of you since the beginning in 2009/2010. I really appreciate all the informative and encouraging comments towards my TA work over the years. It’s been a great community of investors.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

9 Responses to “December 28th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Incredible amount of shorts options taken out yesterday.

    These single day options in 2022 have ready distorted things.

    $CPC 1.91
    $CPCE 2.40 ( that is just nuts!)

    So the gamblers are over 2 to 1 short into today!

  2. pugsma said

    Tune into CNBC and the Barry Bannister (Stifel, Managing Director and Market Strategist) interview now.

    First major analysist I’ve seen that agrees with my primary (white/green) wave count. He’s calling for a rally in the first half of 2023 to at least 4300 (major [1]-P3 wave). Then a major [2]-P3 correction in the second half of 2023.

    Every other major analysist is call for down to 3200 in the first half of 2023.

    I make my bones and my $ being the Contrarian! 🙂

  3. pugsma said

    Shorts are losing big time early today.

    IF this breaks above 3848, the shorts will really get roasted!

  4. pugsma said

    My call is that Tuesday, Jan 3rd is going to be a +2% to +3% up day, as institutions load up the favorite stocks for 2023.

    Early this week positioning has been all about selling some of the biggest winners (Generals like AAPL) to offset the biggest losers and get prepared to have cash to buy the market in January.

    • pugsma said

      I think the SP500 might get pinned here around 3850 into late today and Friday. That’s been the rumor area all week of some big end of the month options plays max pain.

  5. pugsma said

    Subscribers who have been with my service from near the beginning in year 2009 know the importance of the “hidden Fib of 88%”.

    Yesterday the QQQ hit the 88% Fibonacci retracement of the move up from Oct 13th to Dec 13th.

    The QQQ “had to hold” this 88% Fib is the primary (white/green) count was to playout.

    So far the QQQ reaction there has been great and is bullish.

  6. pugsma said

    If had the time (which I don’t as I’m about to leave town for the New Year’s weekend), I’d love to count the number of times CNBC mentions the word “recession” on air today or any single day. I’d bet the over/under is near 20+!

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