December 19th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on December 19, 2022
6:20 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 3851, then drift lower most of the day to 3800 (day’s low) and then rallied late to close at 3817.
Big Picture Discussion: Back on October 18th » October 18th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog (pugsma.com), I was discussing the importance of both the price and time Fibonacci retracement areas for the Primary 2 (P2) of Cycle 3 (C3) wave. On Oct 13th, the 50% Fib for both price and time was hit at 3492. This produced a big move higher of over 600 points to 4100. This move could be an initiation wave, signaling the beginning stage of a new bull market for P3-C3. However, it was important for the 3900 support and rising 50-day SMA (3861) to hold. Now that the SP500 has broken below both those levels, we must also consider that the P2-C3 wave will extend lower and longer to the 62% Fibonacci retrace of price and time at 3190 in Feb/Mar 2023. Remember that while both of these two options are on the table, neither can be eliminated until either 4326 is broken to the upside (confirming the bullish primary wave count) or 3492 to the downside (confirming the bearish wave count).
P2-C3 Price and Time Fibonacci Targets: The P1-C3 wave rose from 2192 to 4819 and lasted from end of March 2020 to beginning of January 2022 (21 months). For P2-C3:
- 50% Fib of Price and Time is at 3505 and 10.5 months (mid-Oct to mid-Nov 2022).
- 62% Fib of Price and Time is at 3190 and 13 months (Jan to Feb 2023).
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Chart Pattern: Double Top at 4100, neckline at 3906 and target at 3712 (Broke and closed below the neckline on Thursday, Dec 15th confirming the pattern and target.)
Wave Counts:
- The primary (white/green) wave count is the completion of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 as a leading diagonal at 4100, where minute (5)>(3)>(1). The initial minor 2 wave target is at the 50% Fib retracement of 3796 (hit 3800 so far). The alternate (blue) count is a deeper 62%/78% Fib retracement for minor 2 at 3726 to 3626. Note: The primary (white/green) and alternate (blue) counts are valid for minor 2 above the P2 low at 3492.
- The alternate (red) wave count is that the P2-C3 wave that began in early 2022 is still ongoing and entering its final leg to new lows at the 62% Fib of price (3190) and time (Feb-Mar 2023). P2-C3 is tracing out a large double Zig-Zag, major [Y]-[X]-[Y]. Major [Y]-P2 completed in June at 3637 and major [X]-P2 completed at 4326 in August. The major [Y]-P2 wave lower has been underway since August and has a [Y]=[W] target of 3147. Withing major [Y], minor A dropped to 3492 and minor B rose to 4101. Now minor C of major [Y] is headed below 3492, where minor C=A at 3267. Within minor C, minute (1) looks to be ending near 3796 to be followed by a minute (2) wave up to 3951. Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 4101.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
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