December 16th, 2022: SP500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on December 16, 2022
5:25 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3896 to 3891, moved steady down most of the to 3828 (day’s low), rallied to 3866 and closed at 3851.
Big Picture Discussion: Back on October 18th » October 18th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog (pugsma.com), I was discussing the importance of both the price and time Fibonacci retracement areas for the Primary 2 (P2) of Cycle 3 (C3) wave. On Oct 13th, the 50% Fib for both price and time was hit at 3492. This produced a big move higher of over 600 points to 4100. This move could be an initiation wave, signaling the beginning stage of a new bull market for P3-C3. However, it was important for the 3900 support and rising 50-day SMA (3861) to hold. Now that the SP500 has broken below both those levels, we must also consider that the P2-C3 wave will extend lower and longer to the 62% Fibonacci retrace of price and time at 3190 in Feb/Mar 2023. Remember that while both of these two options are on the table, neither can be eliminated until either 4326 is broken to the upside (confirming the bullish primary wave count) or 3492 to the downside (confirming the bearish wave count).
P2-C3 Price and Time Fibonacci Targets: The P1-C3 wave rose from 2192 to 4819 and lasted from end of March 2020 to beginning of January 2022 (21 months). For P2-C3:
- 50% Fib of Price and Time is at 3505 and 10.5 months (mid-Oct to mid-Nov 2022).
- 62% Fib of Price and Time is at 3190 and 13 months (Jan to Feb 2023).
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Chart Pattern: Double Top at 4100, neckline at 3906 and target at 3712 (Broke and closed below the neckline on Thursday, Dec 15th confirming the pattern and target.)
Wave Counts:
- The primary (white/green) wave count is the completion of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 as a leading diagonal at 4100, where minute (5)>(3)>(1). The initial minor 2 wave target is at the 50% Fib retracement of 3796 (hit 3828 so far). The alternate (blue) count is a deeper 62%/78% Fib retracement for minor 2 at 3726 to 3626. Note: The primary (white/green) and alternate (blue) counts are valid for minor 2 above the P2 low at 3492.
- The alternate (red) wave count is that the P2-C3 wave that began in early 2022 is still ongoing and entering its final leg to new lows at the 62% Fib of price (3190) and time (Feb-Mar 2023). P2-C3 is tracing out a large double Zig-Zag, major [Y]-[X]-[Y]. Major [Y]-P2 completed in June at 3637 and major [X]-P2 completed at 4326 in August. The major [Y]-P2 wave lower has been underway since August and has a [Y]=[W] target of 3147. Withing major [Y], minor A dropped to 3492 and minor B rose to 4101. Now minor C of major [Y] is headed below 3492, where minor C=A at 3267 Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 4101.
House Keeping: I have opened the enrollment for the 2023 Quarterly and Annual Premium Service: https://pugsma.com/2022/12/01/december-1st-2022-sign-up-for-2023-quarterly-or-annual-premium-service/#respond
A few notes:
- Pricing for 2023 remains the same as 2022. (0% inflation!)
- Discounted Annual Subscriptions (14% savings vs Quarterly) are only available during December each calendar year.
- I have decided to roll the Custom Chart Archive Service back into the Premium Service. Thus, the custom stock charts that I chose on my own to complete will be available to all Premium Service subscribers. This is bonus for 2023 at the same Premium Service price.
- I have kept the Custom Chart Technical Analysis Service for those that want to order personalized custom charts for a stock that they request.
Thank you for your business and support during 2022 and for many of you since the beginning in year 2009. I really appreciate all the informative and encouraging comments towards my TA work over the years. It’s been a great community of investors/traders here at PUG SMA.
Have a great weekend !
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
SP-500 monthly chart:
9 Responses to “December 16th, 2022: SP500 Chart Update”
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pugsma said
A couple of comments:
1. The very bullish primary (white/green) count needs to prove itself, turn around now or very soon and start moving much higher. Year end 2023 targets by this primary wave count should be near the 4800 all-time high!
2. There are a whole lot of fundamental and technical analysis that believe the market is going nowhere for the next year. (I saw it published this week on CNBC that average SP500 forecast is 4000 for year end 2023). That’s precisely where the alternate (red) count ends up (4000) at the end of year 2023, after a dip to 3200 early in the year. The heard is usually wrong (meaning the market will likely be either much higher or much lower year end 2023.)
LightBearer86 said
Hi Steve, i presume you meant to say year end 2023, as opposed to 2024?
pugsma said
Yes year end 2023.
pugsma said
https://pugsma.com/2022/12/17/december-17th-2022-bitcoin-weekly-chart-update/
pugsma said
Finally two weeks of December are up an average of +2.2% after a calendar year with a > 12% drop.
https://twitter.com/quantifiabledgs/status/1604837439822073857?s=46&t=mwktRshtvhuUvUl5qD9_CQ
pugsma said
Seasonality is favorable the final two weeks of the year:
https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1604847619183824896?s=46&t=mwktRshtvhuUvUl5qD9_CQ
pugsma said
CBOE Option Put/Call from Fridays close:
$CPC (total put/call): 1.28 since late September
$CPCE (equity put/call): 1.19
pugsma said
50% Fib at 3796 hit and bounced.
orion.colorado said
I only have 3800.04 as a low on the market data feeds I watch (mainly ToS).
“Close enough to count” theorem bc is it is within 7 points or did you record a different print on eTrade or another platform? Just curious.