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December 9th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on December 9, 2022

6:10 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3963 to 3955, quickly hit 3944, rose to 39377 (day’s high), then fell to close on the low at 3934.

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) count is that minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 was the move up to 3912 from the P2-C3 low at 3492. The minor 2 wave retraced to the 50% Fib of minor 1 at 3698. The minor 3 wave up is underway with an initial target of M3=1.62M1 at 4378. Within minor 3, the minute (1) wave reached 4029. The minute (2) wave is playing out as a flat and may have completed at 3918 near the 50% Fib of 3899 or maybe need to reach the 62% Fib at 3851. Assuming minute (2) is complete at 3918, the wave minute (3) target is at 4325, where (3)=1.23(1). Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above the minor 2 low at 3698.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is the completion of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 as a leading diagonal at 4100, where minute (5)>(3)>(1). The minor 2 wave targets are at the 50%/62% Fibs at 3796/3726. Within minor 2, minute (a) looks to have completed at 3918 and minute (b) bounced to the 38% Fib at 3987. The minute (c) of minor 2 is underway and will drop below 3918 towards the 3796/3726 target at area. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid above the P2 low at 3492.

House Keeping: I have opened the enrollment for the 2023 Quarterly and Annual Premium Service: https://pugsma.com/2022/12/01/december-1st-2022-sign-up-for-2023-quarterly-or-annual-premium-service/#respond

A few notes:

  1. Pricing for 2023 remains the same as 2022. (0% inflation!)
  2. Discounted Annual Subscriptions (14% savings vs Quarterly) are only available during December each calendar year.
  3. I have decided to roll the Custom Chart Archive Service back into the Premium Service. Thus, the custom stock charts that I chose on my own to complete will be available to all Premium Service subscribers. This is bonus for 2023 at the same Premium Service price.
  4. I have kept the Custom Chart Technical Analysis Service for those that want to order personalized custom charts for a stock that they request.

Thank you for your business and support during 2022 and for many of you since the beginning in year 2009. I really appreciate all the informative and encouraging comments towards my TA work over the years. It’s been a great community of investors/traders here at PUG SMA.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

10 Responses to “December 9th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Look todays data from 3 different sources has Tuesday November CPI forecast in a range from 7.3% to 7.6%. October CPI was 7.7%.

    If it comes in at 7.6% or higher, the alt(blue) count is likely.

    If it comes in at 7.3% or lower, then primary(white/green) is likely.

    https://twitter.com/truflation/status/1601357309514743808?s=46&t=mPlx8OgEWzt3nbCi-20t9Q

  2. pugsma said

    The two chart patterns on the 15-min chart are bearish:

    1. There is bear flag break down today with a 3850 area target early next week.
    2. And then IF that bear flag happens, a break below 3906 would then trigger a bearish H&S neckline breakdown with target at 3712.

    • pugsma said

      As you know there are often fake break down or break outs of “obvious patterns”. Everyone sees the support at 3900 and knows the ideal break down target is 3700. So the potential bear flag target at 3850 could be a fake break down and reverse higher.

  3. pugsma said

    SP500, QQQ and IWM Daily Chart MACD has produced a bear cross sell signal this week. All three prior occurrences (January, April and August) during 2022 produced new lows in the indices.

  4. pugsma said

    Early next week price action is going to need to defy the bearish short term chart patterns and daily chart indicators or things will get very bearish into the end of the year.

  5. pugsma said

    A key technical threshold is at 3900 for next week. Breaking down to 3850 and quickly recovering 3900 is OK. But a drop below 3900 that doesn’t recover not only brings the atl(blue) count 3700 target into to play but also 3200.

    Back in early to mid-October 2022 I was discussing two key Fibonacci based price and time targets to end P2-C2: the 50% Fib at 3505 in Oct/Nov 2022 and the 62% Fib af 3190 in Jan/Feb 2023.

    The 50% Fib at 3492 on Oct 13th has looked correct for the P2-C3 bottom, but price needs to get above an upward sloping 200-day and hold above. It came close in late November at 4100 but the 200-day SMA slope was still downward at 4070 and now at 4038. And of course this week the price is back down at 3934.

    October 18th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

    Posted by pugsma on October 18, 2022

    10:40 am EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3678 to 3646, quickly hit 3763 …

    Technical Analysis Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

    P2-C3 Price and Time Fibonacci Targets: The P1-C3 wave rose from 2192 to 4819 and lasted from end of March 2020 to beginning of January 2022 (21 months). For P2-C3:

    50% Fib of Price and Time is at 3505 and 10.5 months (mid-Oct to mid-Nov 2022).
    62% Fib of Price and Time is at 3190 and 13 months (Jan to Feb 2023).

    https://pugsma.com/2022/10/18/october-18th-2022-sp-500-chart-update/

    • pugsma said

      Notice the Oct 18th, 2022 daily chart had minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3 targeting 4074 and that’s exactly what transpired with 4100 being the top of this first wave up from 3492. It also predicted a minor 2 correction back down to the 50%/62% Fib area at 3700. This could be happening now.

      Finally back of Oct 18th, there was a possible scenario where this bounce to 4000 to 4100 was only minor B of major [Y]-P2 and a minor C wave down to the 62% Fib of price and time at 3200 would end around Jan/Feb 2023. That becomes a real possibility again on a break below 3900 and move to the 3700 area.

      https://i0.wp.com/pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/PUG-SP500-daily-10-18-22-AM-1.jpg?ssl=1

  6. pugsma said

    It’s a slightly bullish positive that the SP500 did not have a weekly gap down through the 3900 area support.

    VIX is up big for a small green SP500. Showing hedging.

    Looks like no directional resolution going into Nov CPI report at 8:30am EST Tuesday.

  7. pugsma said

    It’s Good To Be The King!

    https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1602357718240694293?s=46&t=6JfJ-w3JhQ4-qyhMru4-Bw

  8. henry maddux said

    Wahoo here. Maybe we can meet at the big dance.

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