November 15th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on November 15, 2022
5:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3957 to 4006, quickly hit 4029 (day’s high), dipped to 3953 (day’s low), then rose to close at 3992.
Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Chart Pattern: There is a confirmed bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) on the 60-min chart with head at 3492, neckline at 3912 and target of 4332 (The daily close at 3954 above the 3912 neckline on Thursday, Nov 10th triggered the pattern.)
Wave Count: The primary (white/green) count is that minor 2 of major [1]-P3-C3 wave retraced to the 50% Fib of minor 1 at 3698. The minor 3 wave up is well underway with an initial target of M3=1.62M1 at 4378. Within minor 3, minute (1) reached 3859. The minute (2) wave ended at 3744 within the 62%/78% Fib area of 3759 to 3733. The minute (3) of minor 3 wave is underway and headed towards 4166, where (3)=2.62(1). Wave i-(3) topped at 4009. The wave ii-(3) pull-back could have completed at 3953 or could target the 38%/50% Fib area of 3908/3887 before moving higher in wave iii-(3). Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 3744.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
17 Responses to “November 15th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”
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pugsma said
Going into close today traders are loading up on puts.
$CPC jumps from 0.70 early Tuesday to 1.19 late today.
https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1592969002774585345?s=46&t=KnXj6GLqdIrAQMINnpJDdg
pugsma said
Note that today IWM and QQQ already broke below the SP500 equivalent of 3953. It’s likely the SP500 will test the 38%/50% Fibs is 3908 to 3877 in the wave ii-(3).
pugsma said
House keeping: No need to update the charts tonight, wave ii-(3) still unfolding as shown on the existing charts.
pugsma said
$CPC (CBOE option put/call ratio) shot up +48% in one day to 1.25
$CPCE (options equity only put/call) jumped +151% in or day to 1.45 (one of the highest levels on record).
MS53 said
Is this rocket fuel for the next up move ?
pugsma said
Volume in options expiring within 24 hours has exploded recently. This is likely skewing the $CPC and $CPCE high levels observed recently versus historical norms.
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1593247418522345474?s=46&t=PBJssWqtv7qFlfnwbv8lgA
pugsma said
The VIX is also likely being affected by the se large volume, short term options plays.
Traders are likely using large volume, short term options to protect larger term positions. This would tamp down the VIX.
bogiedoc said
Day trading weekly options has become very popular over the last year. Huge volume! I wonder if this is skewing the ratio’s and making them less of a contrarian indicator.
patrick kavanagh said
Nice
Let’s launch this rocket Steve!
pugsma said
The $CPC and $CPPE are data from the CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange). You’d have to be a subscriber to their real-time data.
You call follow Helene Meisler @hmeisler. She posts real-time put/call data often.
Chrys said
If you use Think or Swim (TOS) trading platform it has it. I don’t think you even have to open an account.
I forgot how to imbed an image at PUGSMA.
pugsma said
SP500 13-day EMA at 3888 and 50% Fib at 3877. Important ST levels.
pugsma said
And there is the big gap up from 3749 to 3860 Post Oct CPI report. SP50” Price has held above the top end of the gap (3680), since the report.
pugsma said
This is just one of my observable patterns of the SP500 on big down days during 2022.
If the SP500 is going to make a stand on such a day, it occurs within the early windows of 9:30 to 11:30am EST. If no stand by then, it sells off much lower the rest of the day into the close.
MS53 said
Big help today with this !
pugsma said
Words I have always lived by as an Engineer for 28 years and now a Stock Market Technical Analyst for 12 years.
“Harnessing the power of observation in our engineering career can boost our success at achieving a career and life of fulfillment exponentially. However, we have to start paying attention to our environment and our aspirations to unlock the doors.”
MS53 said
Yeah…and make that 13 years as of last month. I just hit 12 this week on the blog !!