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September 26th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 26, 2022

6:35 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 3695, quickly rose to 3716 (day’s high), dropped 3645 (day’s low), rallied to 3682 and closed at 3655 (new closing low for 2022).

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. $NYMO: Closed at -128 vs a lower BB at -139. NYMO readings below -100 are extremely rare. They are seen during long-term bottoming processes.
  2. $VIX: Closed at 32.26 vs an upper BB at 30.49. The VIX opened and close above its upper BB, which is typically a sign of a lower SP500 closing low ahead (i.e. below 3655). Also, this the 2nd consecutive day the VIX closed above its upper BB, triggering the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy (needs a 2 step confirmation process to confirm).
  3. $NYAD: Closed lower making a new low below the June 2022 low.

Wave Counts: On a major low (June low of 3637) re-test like we are observing, three things are possible: 1) Hold (white/green labels), 2) Slight Break and Hold (blue labels) or 3) a decisive Break and Fall (red labels).

  1. The primary (white/green) count is that major [2]-P3-C3 completed a re-test of June low (3637) at 3645. The minor A wave of major [2] was the drop from 4326 to 3887. Minor B wave was the 50% Fib retrace from 3887 to 4119. The minor C wave completed at 3645 with +DIV on the 60-min chart. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above the P2-C3 low at 3637.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is P2-C3 is playing out as a triple Zig-Zag major [W]-[X]-[Y]-[X]-[Z], with the final (third) zig-zag major [Z] lower underway from 4326 to the 50% Fib retrace of P1-C3 at 3505. Minor A of major [Z]-P2 completed at 3887. Minor B was the 50% Fib retrace to 4119. Now the final minor C of major [Z] down is headed for 3505. Within minor C, minute (1) ended at 3837, minute (2) at 3907, minute (3) completed at 3648 and minute (4) ended at 3716. Because minute (3) was shorter that minute (1), the minute (5) wave must complete above 3456. There is major [Z]=[W] target at 3622. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid below 3837. Also, the alternate (blue) count would become invalid below 3456.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that major [C]-P2-C3 headed the 62% Fib for P2 at 3190. Minor 1 of major [C] was the drop from 4326 to 3887. Minor 2 was the 50% Fib rise from 3887 to 4119. Now the minor 3 wave is headed for a target a target at M3=1.62M1 = 3408. Within minor 3, minute (1) completed at 3837 and minute (2) retraced to the 38% Fib at 3907. Now minute (3) of minor 3 down is underway with an initial target at (3)=1.62(1) = 3517. Note: The alternate (red) wave count is valid below 3907.

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM daily chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

QQQ daily chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

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