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September 26th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 26, 2022

6:35 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 3695, quickly rose to 3716 (day’s high), dropped 3645 (day’s low), rallied to 3682 and closed at 3655 (new closing low for 2022).

Technical Analysis: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  1. $NYMO: Closed at -128 vs a lower BB at -139. NYMO readings below -100 are extremely rare. They are seen during long-term bottoming processes.
  2. $VIX: Closed at 32.26 vs an upper BB at 30.49. The VIX opened and close above its upper BB, which is typically a sign of a lower SP500 closing low ahead (i.e. below 3655). Also, this the 2nd consecutive day the VIX closed above its upper BB, triggering the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy (needs a 2 step confirmation process to confirm).
  3. $NYAD: Closed lower making a new low below the June 2022 low.

Wave Counts: On a major low (June low of 3637) re-test like we are observing, three things are possible: 1) Hold (white/green labels), 2) Slight Break and Hold (blue labels) or 3) a decisive Break and Fall (red labels).

  1. The primary (white/green) count is that major [2]-P3-C3 completed a re-test of June low (3637) at 3645. The minor A wave of major [2] was the drop from 4326 to 3887. Minor B wave was the 50% Fib retrace from 3887 to 4119. The minor C wave completed at 3645 with +DIV on the 60-min chart. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above the P2-C3 low at 3637.
  2. The alternate (blue) count is P2-C3 is playing out as a triple Zig-Zag major [W]-[X]-[Y]-[X]-[Z], with the final (third) zig-zag major [Z] lower underway from 4326 to the 50% Fib retrace of P1-C3 at 3505. Minor A of major [Z]-P2 completed at 3887. Minor B was the 50% Fib retrace to 4119. Now the final minor C of major [Z] down is headed for 3505. Within minor C, minute (1) ended at 3837, minute (2) at 3907, minute (3) completed at 3648 and minute (4) ended at 3716. Because minute (3) was shorter that minute (1), the minute (5) wave must complete above 3456. There is major [Z]=[W] target at 3622. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid below 3837. Also, the alternate (blue) count would become invalid below 3456.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that major [C]-P2-C3 headed the 62% Fib for P2 at 3190. Minor 1 of major [C] was the drop from 4326 to 3887. Minor 2 was the 50% Fib rise from 3887 to 4119. Now the minor 3 wave is headed for a target a target at M3=1.62M1 = 3408. Within minor 3, minute (1) completed at 3837 and minute (2) retraced to the 38% Fib at 3907. Now minute (3) of minor 3 down is underway with an initial target at (3)=1.62(1) = 3517. Note: The alternate (red) wave count is valid below 3907.

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

IWM daily chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

QQQ daily chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

9 Responses to “September 26th, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    The drop to 3623 today, breaking the June 3637 low, eliminated the SP500 primary (white/green) count.

    For the SP500 alt (blue) count the major [Z]=[W] target was hit at 3622. They’re building bullish +DIV on the SP500 chart on the past two day marginally lower lows at 3645 at 3623.

    For QQQ and IWM the June lows are still intact and their primary (white/green) counts remain valid.

    House keeping: No chart update tonight.

  2. pugsma said

    SP500 Bullish 12-month Forecast from a retired Technical Analyst, Walter Deemer, who never makes forecasts:

    https://twitter.com/walterdeemer/status/1575110713609424896?s=46&t=fUeIdaUvdwkW9pGuOFsMbA

  3. pugsma said

    Off Topic: I hope all my SW Florida subscribers have evaluated or in safe location today. Cat 4 Hurricane Ian appears to taking almost the exact same path as 2004 Cat 4 Hurricane Charlie into the Punta Gorda area.

    • kazoom1618 said

      I’m not there ’til Dec, but my guys put up the kevlar house wrap yesterday in the pouring rain.

      • pugsma said

        Kazoom: I just saw video of 7 foot storm surge in Naples. Hopefully your Naples home is not in that particular area.

        • pugsma said

          High tide is still an hour away in Marco Island, Naples and Ft Meyers. They are saying the water will push another 3 feet higher.

          Downtown Ft Meyers looks to be under 10 feet of water or more.

          Just devastating storm surge.

        • kazoom1618 said

          My street cam power just went out, but there was no water collecting on the street yet. We’re about 12-14ft above sea level. I’m more concerned about the wind. Bismarck palms out front are managing it ok.

    • moiz said

      I’m in Daytona Beach, East coast. We good for now since it still far for us. Winds are picking up and raining steady. We had all night to tomorrow afternoon. I feel for the west coast.

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