PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog

PUG Stock Market Analysis is here to help with SP500, QQQ, IWM, Gold technical analysis, stock analysis and more.

  • Meta

  • Follow Blog via Email

    Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

  • Subscribe

  • PUG Wave Labeling

    SCI-SCV, SCA-SCC: Super Cycle
    C1-C5, CA-CC :Cycle
    P1-P5, PA-PC : Primary
    [1]-[5], [A]-[C] : Major
    1-5, A-C : Minor
    (1)-(5), (a)-(c) : Minute
    i-v, a-b : Minuette
    Primary Count:
    White/Green (Bull Market)
    White/Red (Bear Market)
    Alternate Count: Blue

  • Categories

  • Archives

July 23rd, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on July 23, 2022

12:45 pm EST: On Friday, July 22nd the SP-500 opened flat from 3999, quickly spiked to 4012 (day’s high) and dropped steadily all day to 3939 (day’s low) and closed at 3962.

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that P2-C3 completed at 3637, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665 and the P3-C3 wave up to new all-time high is just getting underway. Minor 1 of major [1]-P3 completed at 3946. The minor 2 wave dropped to 3722, which is within the 62%/78% Fibs retrace area of 3754 to 3705. The minor 3 wave target is at 4223, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. Within minor 3, the minute (1) wave completed at 3902 and minute (2) retraced nearly 50% to 3819. The minute (3) wave up is underway with target at 4111, where (3)=1.62(1). Ultimately the major [1]-P3 wave should target the 4417 area into years end. Note: The primary (white/green) count minute (3) of minor 3 of major [1] wave up remains valid above the minute (2) of minor 3 low at 3819.
  2. The new alternate (blue) count variation to the primary (white/green) count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [1]-P3-C3 completed at 3999. The minute (2) wave should now retrace to the 50% Fib at 3861. Note: The alternate (blue) count minute (2) of minor 3 wave up remains valid above the minor 2 low at 3722.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that major [A]-P2-C3 completed at 3637. Next is a major [B]-P2 wave that will retrace to the 38% Fib at 4086. Minor A of major [B] competed at 3946. The minor B wave dropped to 3722, which is within the 62%/78% Fib area of 4754 to 4705. The minor C=A target is at 4031 to complete major [B] and the 38% Fib retrace is 4086. Today the SP500 hit 3999 and is only 32 points short of the 4031 target and hit the upper down channel line. Once major [B]-P2 completes, there will another large leg down for major [C]-P2 toward the 62% Fib retrace of P1-C3 at 3190. Note: The alternate (red) count is confirmed on a break below 3722 and then below 3637.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

6 Responses to “July 23rd, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    The 4-Year Presidential Cycle (mid-term years) remains down into late September.

    Also the US Fed likely won’t pivot until after the September meeting.

    Thus, this primary count major [1]-P3 wave needs to make further progress above 4000 to escape the alt red count scenario that the late September low will break below 3637.


  2. pugsma said

    Nice video presentation of the historical market data here by Chris C.

    One of the key signals just triggered this week puts it at about 66% probability that the 3637 low is the low for the next 4 years (my primary white/green count) versus a 33% chance of a lower low than 3637 in the range if 3500 to 3000 (my alt red count).

    Even in the 66% cases that the 3637 low will hold, there is at least 2 to 3 months of likely volatility ahead in re-testing that 3637 low.


    • The Ant Bully said

      Hi Steve, From Friday’s price action and the ES overnight action, which count feels more valid to you at this time? Thank you.

      • pugsma said

        I don’t use ES Futures in my technical analysis.

        The primary count is always my highest probability wave count.

  3. pugsma said

    The battling market strategists: MS Mike Wilson vs JPM Kolanovic

    MS (Bear view): https://twitter.com/marketwatch/status/1551613807973351426?s=21&t=4qm57J2Eucm8gb2yR-nfKQ

    JPM (Bull view): https://twitter.com/cnbc/status/1551625707863871489?s=21&t=4qm57J2Eucm8gb2yR-nfKQ

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

%d bloggers like this: