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July 23rd, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on July 23, 2022

12:45 pm EST: On Friday, July 22nd the SP-500 opened flat from 3999, quickly spiked to 4012 (day’s high) and dropped steadily all day to 3939 (day’s low) and closed at 3962.

Technical Indicators: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts:

  1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that P2-C3 completed at 3637, where [C]=1.38[A] at 3665 and the P3-C3 wave up to new all-time high is just getting underway. Minor 1 of major [1]-P3 completed at 3946. The minor 2 wave dropped to 3722, which is within the 62%/78% Fibs retrace area of 3754 to 3705. The minor 3 wave target is at 4223, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. Within minor 3, the minute (1) wave completed at 3902 and minute (2) retraced nearly 50% to 3819. The minute (3) wave up is underway with target at 4111, where (3)=1.62(1). Ultimately the major [1]-P3 wave should target the 4417 area into years end. Note: The primary (white/green) count minute (3) of minor 3 of major [1] wave up remains valid above the minute (2) of minor 3 low at 3819.
  2. The new alternate (blue) count variation to the primary (white/green) count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [1]-P3-C3 completed at 3999. The minute (2) wave should now retrace to the 50% Fib at 3861. Note: The alternate (blue) count minute (2) of minor 3 wave up remains valid above the minor 2 low at 3722.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that major [A]-P2-C3 completed at 3637. Next is a major [B]-P2 wave that will retrace to the 38% Fib at 4086. Minor A of major [B] competed at 3946. The minor B wave dropped to 3722, which is within the 62%/78% Fib area of 4754 to 4705. The minor C=A target is at 4031 to complete major [B] and the 38% Fib retrace is 4086. Today the SP500 hit 3999 and is only 32 points short of the 4031 target and hit the upper down channel line. Once major [B]-P2 completes, there will another large leg down for major [C]-P2 toward the 62% Fib retrace of P1-C3 at 3190. Note: The alternate (red) count is confirmed on a break below 3722 and then below 3637.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

6 Responses to “July 23rd, 2022: SP-500, IWM and QQQ Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    The 4-Year Presidential Cycle (mid-term years) remains down into late September.

    Also the US Fed likely won’t pivot until after the September meeting.

    Thus, this primary count major [1]-P3 wave needs to make further progress above 4000 to escape the alt red count scenario that the late September low will break below 3637.

    https://pugsma.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/img_3663.jpg

  2. pugsma said

    Nice video presentation of the historical market data here by Chris C.

    One of the key signals just triggered this week puts it at about 66% probability that the 3637 low is the low for the next 4 years (my primary white/green count) versus a 33% chance of a lower low than 3637 in the range if 3500 to 3000 (my alt red count).

    Even in the 66% cases that the 3637 low will hold, there is at least 2 to 3 months of likely volatility ahead in re-testing that 3637 low.

    https://twitter.com/ciovaccocapital/status/1550632984256077824?s=21&t=VdjP-hKcnBiKsWWctzU-zg

    • The Ant Bully said

      Hi Steve, From Friday’s price action and the ES overnight action, which count feels more valid to you at this time? Thank you.

      • pugsma said

        I don’t use ES Futures in my technical analysis.

        The primary count is always my highest probability wave count.

  3. pugsma said

    The battling market strategists: MS Mike Wilson vs JPM Kolanovic

    MS (Bear view): https://twitter.com/marketwatch/status/1551613807973351426?s=21&t=4qm57J2Eucm8gb2yR-nfKQ

    JPM (Bull view): https://twitter.com/cnbc/status/1551625707863871489?s=21&t=4qm57J2Eucm8gb2yR-nfKQ

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