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May 6th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 6, 2022

2:15 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4150 to 4128, dropped to 4067, rose to 4158…

Price is continuing to search for the for the P2-C3 bottom with listed targets between 4063 and 3821 (38% Fib retrace of the P1 wave up). There are several wave count options shown on the charts below for how the P2-C3 bottom will form.

Have a great weekend!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

20 Responses to “May 6th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Michael Kalin said

    It’s looking like an awfully subdued $VIX (and a bearish $VIX candle) so far. Good divergence between $SPX and $VIX. $CPC had a drop as well… How is $NYMO looking?

    • pugsma said

      NYMO is around -45 today vs -65 last Friday when SP500 had a new closing low of 4132.

      A SP500 close below 4132 today with NYMO above -65 is a potential week long NYMO +DIV wrt to the SP500.

      • pugsma said

        We did get the slightly lower low SP500 close at 4123 vs 4132 last Friday.

        1) VIX closed considerably lower this Friday (30 vs 33) for a potential week long -DIV wrt SP500.

        2) The NYMO closed considerably higher this Friday (-35 vs -65) for a potential week long +DIV wrt SP500.

        Both of these technical conditional are potential bullish setups heading into next week.

  2. jrw said

    Per Urban Carmel, since 1997, SPX was down 5 weeks in a row 8 times. 7 of 8 times (88%) was not a bottom


  3. jrw said

    Per Seth Golden, since 2004, every, single, market bottom has been signaled by the 5-day moving average Equity Only P/C ratio of .75 or better. Friday’s reading was 0.62


  4. william puckett said

    Just another indicator?

  5. AT said

    The NYMO positive divergence may get wiped out if we fall further

  6. charles blood said

    On the above $CPCE indicator: in 2008 many times was not the final bottom as it was March 2009. So if over .75 could have a bounce, but sill lower prices, if I am correct.

  7. pugsma said

    BTC: Technically speaking I’ve got some potential bad news for BTC. With the break below $32,500 today there is a clear bear flag ($32,500 to $48,500) break-down that has a measured move target of $32,500 – ($48,000 – $ 32,500) = $17,000. If you use the height of the $69,000 to $32,500 drop, then the target is $48,000 – ($69,000 – $32,500) = $11,500.

    Remember BTC block rewards half roughly every 4 years. The last two halving were in the spring of 2016 and the spring of 2020. These halving produce a massive 2+ year bull run follows by a 2+ year bear market.

    The bull run after 2016 halving peaked at $19,000 and bear low was $3000 in Dec 2018.

    The bull run after the 2020 having reached $69,000 (a factor of $69/$3 = 23 gain) and now the bear low is do by Dec 2022 and could hit $17,000 to $12,000, based on the bear flag break down.

    This will set-up the next BTC bull run into 2024 that could reach $12,000*($69,000/$3000) = $276,000 to $17,000*($69,000/$3000) = $391,000.

    So the idea here is accumulate BTC from here at $31,000 all the way down to $17,000 to $12,000 over the next 6 to 8 months.

    • pugsma said

      If I get some time this week I’ll show all this technical thinking on a BTC daily or weekly chart.

  8. pugsma said

    A big gap on Tuesday and close near the lows (3933 to 3822) , would likely drive the NYMO below it’s BB at -70 area and the VIX above its BB at the 36 area. The SP500 is already set to close below its BB of 4015 today.

    • pugsma said

      The bottom needs the next day or two to produce massive fear!

      • pugsma said

        A circuit breaker trip at down -7% on the SP500 from 4000 to 3720 is not out of the realm of potential outcomes for tomorrow.

      • pugsma said

        Not enough fear at the close today. Need big fear tomorrow or on Wednesday with the “shocking” April CPI print.

        • pugsma said

          20% SP500 drop from 4819 is at 3855 and the 38% Fib retrace of P1 is 3821.

          Of note: The 2018 Christmas Eve key bottom on Fed rate hikes was a 20% SP500 drop.

  9. pugsma said

    The NYMO -65 reading from late April was likely lost today or very nearly lost at the close.

    The next key NYMO reading to hold a above is -89 from the late Feb SP500 close near 4150.

    Below close that -89 NYMO reading and it’s is a cascade SP500 waterfall well below my 3821 target. The NYMO can get buried below -120 down to -150 during those types of events. Extremely Dangerous next few days.

    • pugsma said

      SP500 circuit breaker trip declines of -7% intra-dat are on the table now. Target is the 50% to 62% Fib retrace of P1 at 3505 to 3190.

      This is the new alt(red) count with the primary (white/green) holding 3821.

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