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May 6th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 6, 2022

2:15 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4150 to 4128, dropped to 4067, rose to 4158…

Price is continuing to search for the for the P2-C3 bottom with listed targets between 4063 and 3821 (38% Fib retrace of the P1 wave up). There are several wave count options shown on the charts below for how the P2-C3 bottom will form.

Have a great weekend!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

20 Responses to “May 6th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Michael Kalin said

    It’s looking like an awfully subdued $VIX (and a bearish $VIX candle) so far. Good divergence between $SPX and $VIX. $CPC had a drop as well… How is $NYMO looking?

    • pugsma said

      NYMO is around -45 today vs -65 last Friday when SP500 had a new closing low of 4132.

      A SP500 close below 4132 today with NYMO above -65 is a potential week long NYMO +DIV wrt to the SP500.

      • pugsma said

        We did get the slightly lower low SP500 close at 4123 vs 4132 last Friday.

        1) VIX closed considerably lower this Friday (30 vs 33) for a potential week long -DIV wrt SP500.

        2) The NYMO closed considerably higher this Friday (-35 vs -65) for a potential week long +DIV wrt SP500.

        Both of these technical conditional are potential bullish setups heading into next week.

  2. jrw said

    Per Urban Carmel, since 1997, SPX was down 5 weeks in a row 8 times. 7 of 8 times (88%) was not a bottom

    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1522672634969829376

  3. jrw said

    Per Seth Golden, since 2004, every, single, market bottom has been signaled by the 5-day moving average Equity Only P/C ratio of .75 or better. Friday’s reading was 0.62

    https://twitter.com/SethCL/status/1523303883564797952

  4. william puckett said

    Just another indicator?
    https://i.gyazo.com/98a860ef0d71ce832bf0590d2fa19a60.png

  5. AT said

    The NYMO positive divergence may get wiped out if we fall further

  6. charles blood said

    On the above $CPCE indicator: in 2008 many times was not the final bottom as it was March 2009. So if over .75 could have a bounce, but sill lower prices, if I am correct.

  7. pugsma said

    BTC: Technically speaking I’ve got some potential bad news for BTC. With the break below $32,500 today there is a clear bear flag ($32,500 to $48,500) break-down that has a measured move target of $32,500 – ($48,000 – $ 32,500) = $17,000. If you use the height of the $69,000 to $32,500 drop, then the target is $48,000 – ($69,000 – $32,500) = $11,500.

    Remember BTC block rewards half roughly every 4 years. The last two halving were in the spring of 2016 and the spring of 2020. These halving produce a massive 2+ year bull run follows by a 2+ year bear market.

    The bull run after 2016 halving peaked at $19,000 and bear low was $3000 in Dec 2018.

    The bull run after the 2020 having reached $69,000 (a factor of $69/$3 = 23 gain) and now the bear low is do by Dec 2022 and could hit $17,000 to $12,000, based on the bear flag break down.

    This will set-up the next BTC bull run into 2024 that could reach $12,000*($69,000/$3000) = $276,000 to $17,000*($69,000/$3000) = $391,000.

    So the idea here is accumulate BTC from here at $31,000 all the way down to $17,000 to $12,000 over the next 6 to 8 months.

    • pugsma said

      If I get some time this week I’ll show all this technical thinking on a BTC daily or weekly chart.

  8. pugsma said

    A big gap on Tuesday and close near the lows (3933 to 3822) , would likely drive the NYMO below it’s BB at -70 area and the VIX above its BB at the 36 area. The SP500 is already set to close below its BB of 4015 today.

    • pugsma said

      The bottom needs the next day or two to produce massive fear!

      • pugsma said

        A circuit breaker trip at down -7% on the SP500 from 4000 to 3720 is not out of the realm of potential outcomes for tomorrow.

      • pugsma said

        Not enough fear at the close today. Need big fear tomorrow or on Wednesday with the “shocking” April CPI print.

        • pugsma said

          20% SP500 drop from 4819 is at 3855 and the 38% Fib retrace of P1 is 3821.

          Of note: The 2018 Christmas Eve key bottom on Fed rate hikes was a 20% SP500 drop.

  9. pugsma said

    The NYMO -65 reading from late April was likely lost today or very nearly lost at the close.

    The next key NYMO reading to hold a above is -89 from the late Feb SP500 close near 4150.

    Below close that -89 NYMO reading and it’s is a cascade SP500 waterfall well below my 3821 target. The NYMO can get buried below -120 down to -150 during those types of events. Extremely Dangerous next few days.

    • pugsma said

      SP500 circuit breaker trip declines of -7% intra-dat are on the table now. Target is the 50% to 62% Fib retrace of P1 at 3505 to 3190.

      This is the new alt(red) count with the primary (white/green) holding 3821.

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