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May 4th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 4, 2022

5:05 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 4175, rose to 4185, dropped to 4149 (day’s low) and rallied big-time to 4308 (day’s high) and closed at 4301.

Technical Indicators: See the SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  • SP500 BB Signal: On Monday, May 2nd the SP500 closed back inside its lower BB, triggering the SP500 Buy Signal.
  • VIX BB Signal: On Monday, May 2nd the VIX close back inside its upper BB, triggering step 2 of a SP500 Buy Signal. Step 3 (confirmation) was a VIX red close on Tuesday, May 3rd.
  • NYMO: On Monday, May 2nd the NYMO confirmed a +DIV with the lower SP500 close at 4132 on Friday, April 29th.

Wave Counts: The primary (white/green) count is 80% probable, and alternate (red) count is 20% probable. 

  1. The primary (white/green) count is that P2-C3 completed at 4063, between the major [C]=0.78[A] target at 4088 and the major [C]=0.88[A] at 4017. The minor 1 of major [1]-P3 is underway and should target the 4447 area. Within minor 1, minute (1) completed at 4200, minute (2) at 4159 and now minute (3) is head for (3)=1.62(1) at 4371.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4063 and a break above 4370 is required to confirm the P2-C3 bottom at 4063 for the primary (white/green) count.
  2. The alternate (red) count is that the P2-C3 wave down is still ongoing and will target at least the 38% Fib of P1 at 3821 (maybe lower to the 50% Fib at 3506). Within the P2 wave, major [A] ended at 4115 and the major [B] wave topped at 4637. Now the major [C] wave down is headed towards at least the 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1-C3 at 3821. Within major [C], the first minor 1 wave completed at 4370 and the minor 2 wave bounce hit 5212, just above 50% Fib at 4504. The minor 3 wave down completed at 4063, just below the 1.62*minor 1 target at 4079. The minor 4 has already retraced to 4308, beyond both the 38% Fib at 4234 and the 50% Fib at 4288; thus minor 4 must turn around now or it will overlap the minor 1 wave at 4370 and invalidate this alt (red) count. Assuming minor 4 ends here are 4308 below 4370, then the final minor 5 wave will drop lower towards where major [C]=[A] target at 3933 and the 38% Fib at 3821 to complete P2.  Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 4370 and confirmed on break below 4063.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

15 Responses to “May 4th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. AT said

    Does this move today confirm the red count ?

  2. pugsma said

    From my text above:

    Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4063 and a break above 4370 is required to confirm the P2-C3 bottom at 4063 for the primary (white/green) count.

    Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 4370 and confirmed on break below 4063.

  3. pugsma said

    The lowest SP500 close was 4132 last Friday, so today has the potential to break that closing level. Key will be where the NYMO closes IF there is new closing low below 4132.

  4. Brian R said

    This is definitely not white/green count 3rd wave behavior though, correct?

    • pugsma said

      The white/green count is a minor 1 of major [1] wave. And more specifically minute (2) of minor 1 wave.

      • Brian R said

        Sorry I was referencing your count on the 15min chart that had us in iii of (3) of 1 – unless I’m reading it incorrectly.

        • pugsma said

          Breaking below the 15-min chart labeled minute (2) low at 4149, means wave minute (2) is still in progress above 4063.

  5. pugsma said

    House Keeping: No chart update tonight. I will however update on Friday.

    The SP500, IWM and QQQ (barely) held their primary (white/green) count P2-C3 lows today. Thus, all three counts are a deep retrace for minute (2) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3.

    Breaking below their respective primary (white/green) count lows, obviously triggers the alt(red) count minor 5 of major [C]-P2-C3 wave down to the 3933 to 3821 area.

    • AT said

      What are your thoughts on QQQ considering it made a slightly lower low today – so does still keep wave 2 alive ?

      • pugsma said

        QQQ can’t be in a wave minute (2) of minor 1 with the lower low than 309.65 today. However it could have put in it’s P2-C3 low at 309.62 as the SP500 and IWM retraced a their minute (2) of minor 1 of major [1]-P3-C3.

        • AT said

          Broke to a new low today so it confirmed a lower low … not sure what this means … any thoughts on the bounce appreciated …

  6. Jim Guthery said

    Check this stat out on “Markets in Turmoil”, from CNBC

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1522565809708711936

  7. jrw said

    Steve, with both IWM and QQQ putting in lower lows today and confirming the Alt red count, does that influence your thoughts on SPX?

    • pugsma said

      Alt(red) count labels are now the primary count path for IWM and QQQ. However, realize that this count can bottom at any point now that their lows broke.

      SP500 held the 4063 by low by 4 points at 4067. While it doesn’t have to follow the IWM and QQQ to a new lower low than 4063, it’s likely to.

      The trading day (Friday) is young and markets rarely make a key bottom on a Friday. Monday and Tuesday are more typical key bottoming days.

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