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May 4th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 4, 2022

5:05 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 4175, rose to 4185, dropped to 4149 (day’s low) and rallied big-time to 4308 (day’s high) and closed at 4301.

Technical Indicators: See the SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

  • SP500 BB Signal: On Monday, May 2nd the SP500 closed back inside its lower BB, triggering the SP500 Buy Signal.
  • VIX BB Signal: On Monday, May 2nd the VIX close back inside its upper BB, triggering step 2 of a SP500 Buy Signal. Step 3 (confirmation) was a VIX red close on Tuesday, May 3rd.
  • NYMO: On Monday, May 2nd the NYMO confirmed a +DIV with the lower SP500 close at 4132 on Friday, April 29th.

Wave Counts: The primary (white/green) count is 80% probable, and alternate (red) count is 20% probable. 

  1. The primary (white/green) count is that P2-C3 completed at 4063, between the major [C]=0.78[A] target at 4088 and the major [C]=0.88[A] at 4017. The minor 1 of major [1]-P3 is underway and should target the 4447 area. Within minor 1, minute (1) completed at 4200, minute (2) at 4159 and now minute (3) is head for (3)=1.62(1) at 4371.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4063 and a break above 4370 is required to confirm the P2-C3 bottom at 4063 for the primary (white/green) count.
  2. The alternate (red) count is that the P2-C3 wave down is still ongoing and will target at least the 38% Fib of P1 at 3821 (maybe lower to the 50% Fib at 3506). Within the P2 wave, major [A] ended at 4115 and the major [B] wave topped at 4637. Now the major [C] wave down is headed towards at least the 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1-C3 at 3821. Within major [C], the first minor 1 wave completed at 4370 and the minor 2 wave bounce hit 5212, just above 50% Fib at 4504. The minor 3 wave down completed at 4063, just below the 1.62*minor 1 target at 4079. The minor 4 has already retraced to 4308, beyond both the 38% Fib at 4234 and the 50% Fib at 4288; thus minor 4 must turn around now or it will overlap the minor 1 wave at 4370 and invalidate this alt (red) count. Assuming minor 4 ends here are 4308 below 4370, then the final minor 5 wave will drop lower towards where major [C]=[A] target at 3933 and the 38% Fib at 3821 to complete P2.  Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 4370 and confirmed on break below 4063.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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