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April 28th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 28, 2022

1:35 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4183 to 422, dropped to 4188 (day’s low), rallied to 4284…

Technical Indicators: See the SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Counts: The primary (white/green) count and alternate (blue) count combination that this current move lower will end in the area of the 4115 February low (either slightly above or slightly below) is 60% probable, and alternate (red) count the P2-C2 low will reach at least 3823 or lower is 40% probable. 

  1. The primary (white/green) count is that P2-C3 bottomed at 4115. The major [1] of P3-C3 wave up is underway, but in the very early stages. The minor 1 of major [1] wave reached 4637. The large drop to 4163 is the minor 2 wave, that has retraced to just below the 88% Fib at 4178. The minor 3 wave up should target minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 at 5009. Within minor 3, the minute (1) of minor 3 wave target is the 4413 area.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 4115.
  2. The new alternate (blue) count is that the P2-C2 wave down is near a completion and it will slightly undercut the February 4115 low. The major [C]=0.78[A] target is at 4088 or right at the 4086 pivot area. Note: A break above 4370 will invalidate this alternate (blue) count in favor of the primary (white/green) count.
  3. The alternate (red) count is that the P2-C3 wave down is still ongoing and will target at least the 38% Fib of P1 at 3821 (maybe lower to the 50% Fib at 3506). Within the P2 wave, major [A] ended at 4115 and the major [B] wave topped at 4637. Now the major [C] wave down is headed towards at least the 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1-C3 at 3821. Within major [C], the first minor 1 wave completed at 4370 and the minor 2 wave bounce hit 5212, just above 50% Fib at 4504. The minor 3 wave down is underway and should target 1.62*minor 1 target it at 4079. Once minor 3 ends near 4079, the minor 4 should retrace to the 23%/38% Fib area of 4179 to 4244, before the final minor 5 drops lower that 4079 towards where major [C]=[A] at 3933 to complete P2.  Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 4370.

House Keeping: I’m beginning my usual summer schedule (a little early) of not making a blog post on Fridays from now (April 29th, 2022) until after Labor Day (Sept 5th, 2022). Having lived in Chicago for nearly 30 years enduring the cold fall/winter/spring, it’s important to get outside and enjoy the nice summer weather on the long 3-way weekends.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

26 Responses to “April 28th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Brad Dantone said

    Dan Russo breath update… – https://thechartreport.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=ff3e9b002425db89405041ed1&id=42a4ef5631&e=8066c7dbff.

  2. Anjali Tewari said

    Is there something that will give a hit of whether we are on red vs white path after this gap down

  3. pugsma said

    Thoughts on potential timing for the P2-C3 low per alternate (red) count:

    P1-C3 wave rose from 2192 to 4819 over 21 months from late March 2020 to early January 2022.

    The P2-C3 wave price should retrace to at least the 38% Fib of P1-C3, which is 3821.

    The P2-C3 wave time should be a 38% Fib of 21 months, which is 8 months or August 2022.

    Remember that the market is looking about six months ahead. The Federal reserve is likely to raise rates for 0.25% to 2.5% over the next 6 meetings (May 3-4 to December 13-14) then pause. 6 months ahead of mid-Dec is mid-June.

    So P2-C3 alt (red) should end between mid-June and late August near 3821.

    • pugsma said

      For the SP500, QQQ and IWM to bottom here in late April to early May, the market would need to sniff out the Fed pausing earlier than mid-Dec.

  4. pugsma said

    The weeks AAII Sentiment survey (16% Bulls, 59% Bears) showed investors are more bearish than at any time since March 2009.

    For 2022, The SP500 is down -14% and diversified bonds are down -11%. Inflation is up +8.4%. So even if you are in cash you are losing -8.4% to inflation!


  5. pugsma said

    Today’s price action thus far is ideal for the alt(red) count.

    Yesterday at the 4300 area was the last decent exit opportunity on the way to alt(red) count down to at least 3821 by mid-June to August.

    That’s another -9.3% down on the SP500 that at 4200.

  6. Brad Dantone said

    Thanks for your extra work today…with the dollar chart standing out over other overwhelming bad news…probabilities are Red Red Red 3/3/3 Count.

    • pugsma said

      Please refrain from making up wave counts here.

      The alt(red) count is in minute (5) of minor 3 of major [C]-P2.

  7. pugsma said

    For the alt(blue) minor 5 = minor 1 at 4036 to complete major [C]-P2. Testing the nice round number of 4000.

    • pugsma said

      I’ll be Looking to pull the trigger on some bullish options plays on Monday with SP500 trading between the 4086 pivot and 4036. Probably only a ST trade though.

      • pugsma said

        New closing low at 4132. Set-up is there for an alt(blue) and alt(red) count flush to 4088 to 4036 on Monday. I’ll look to use cash to load up the truck there for at least a ST trade back to to 4179 to 4244.

  8. Stephen Schneider said

    Hi Steve,
    Last week, you mentioned that a ‘flash crash’ type of event was possible given that the market cratered from ~4500 on the S&P last Thursday to the a low of ~4250 on Friday. Do you believe that’s still possible, or perhaps that’s pretty much been taken off the table – considering that sentiment is so gloomy, there may not be much left to crash from?

    If this question is just plan silly, feel free to simply delete it.

    Much thanks,

    • pugsma said

      I won’t say it’s off the table. The market could head for the alt(red count 3821 target in “flash crash” type event next well or take most of May into early June has shown on my charts.

  9. pugsma said

    SP500 closed below its lower BB and VIX above its upper BB resetting those to technical but signals. Awaiting new triggers…

    On a potential small positive note the VIX closed slightly lower today with new SP500 closing low of 4132 vs Tuesday close at 4175.

    Also NYMO closed higher today at -50 with lower SP500 close of 4132 vs -65 on Tuesday with SP500 4175 close.

  10. Michael Kalin said

    $CPC clocked in at 1.33. Any comments on that?

  11. pugsma said

    Good historical market summary of where we are now here by Chris C.

    IF the SP500 doesn’t hold this 4115 to 4088 area or 3821 at most during the next 7 to 14 days, then odds of an even deep bear market down another -20 to -30% from Thursday 4284 close is very high. That would take the P2-C3 wave to the 62% Fib of P1-C3 at 3190 into August to September.


    • Jim Guthery said

      Damn, never easy. Thanks for guidance, this is one of the outcomes I feared the most.

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