January 20th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Upate
Posted by pugsma on January 20, 2022
6:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4533 to 4447, climbed to a day’s high of 4602, then fall hard into the close to close near the low (4478) at 4482.
Key Market Comment: It’s possible now that the P1-C3 top is in place at 4819 on January 4th, 2022. An important technical indicator here is that the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative $NYAD | SharpChart | StockCharts.com) that failed to make a new high along with SP-500 and is now rolling over hard. This nearly two month long negative divergence on a key market indicator of underlying strength. The NYSE A-D Line cumulative almost always negatively divergence significantly a key market top. This can correct itself, however it going to take very broad market rally of all sectors per the primary (white/green) wave count, which is calling for wave (3) of minor 3 move much higher.
Technical Indicators: See this SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- Today the Trifecta SP-500 Buy Trigger was hit for 2nd consecutive day with the SP500 close below its lower Bollinger Band, The NYMO close below its lower Bollinger Band and The VIX above its upper Bollinger Band. Remember this condition doesn’t always happen at an exact SP-500 bottom (but near it), as these indicators can remain outside their respective Bollinger Bands for 2 or 3 days as the SP-500 continues to drop. It takes a close back inside the their respective Bollinger Bands to confirm each SP-500 Buy Signals.
- Also, it was the 2nd consecutive day with the NYMO close below -40 and below it’s lower BB. This often leads to a big SP500 rally on the 3rd day.
- Finally, there is a potential +DIV on the NYMO vs SP500 and -DIV on the VIX vs SP500 closing prices from early December to today. Both of these are potential bullish for setting a key SP500 bottom.
Wave Count Options: The primary (white/green) count and it’s similar alternate (blue) are 55% probable, while the alternate (red) count is 45% probable.
- The original primary (white/green) and alternate (blue) wave count is that the minor 2 of major [5]-P1 wave is playing out as an expanded flat wave. Minute (a) was the drop from 4743 to 4495. Minute (b) was the move up from 4495 to 4819, where (b)=1.23(a) at 4800. Now underway is the scary minute (c) of minor 2 drop from 4819 to the 62%/78% Fib targets of 4455/4481. Note (c)=1.38(a) at 4477 and (c)=1.62(a) at 4417 (which is more typical of an expanded flat). Note: The primary (white/green) and alternate (blue) count remains valid above the major [4] low at 4279.
- A new alternate (red) wave count that has P1-C3 topped at 4819 and now the P2 correction to a least a 23% Fibonacci retrace of P1 down to 4215. Looking for P2 to play out as a 3-3-3 major [W]-[X]-[Y]. Minor A of major [W] completed at 4582 and minor B of major [W] retraced to 4749 (between the 50%/62% Fibs of 4729/4767). Now the minor C of major [W] wave down is underway with targets of 1.23*minor A target at 4457, 1.38*minor A at 4422 and 1.62*minor A at 4365. Note: A break below 4279 would confirm this alternate (red) wave count.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
You must be logged in to post a comment.