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January 19th, 2022: SP-50 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 19, 2022

6:15 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4579 to 4588, quickly hit the day’s high of 4612, then drifted lower all day to close near the low (4530) at 4533.

Key Market Comment: It’s possible now that the P1-C3 top is in place at 4819 on January 4th, 2022. An important technical indicator here is that the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative $NYAD | SharpChart | StockCharts.com) that failed to make a new high along with SP-500 and is now rolling over hard. This nearly two month long negative divergence on a key market indicator of underlying strength. The NYSE A-D Line cumulative almost always negatively divergence significantly a key market top. This can correct itself, however it going to take very broad market rally of all sectors per the primary (white/green) wave count, which is calling for wave (3) of minor 3 move much higher.

Technical Indicators: Today the Trifecta SP-500 Buy Trigger was initiated with the SP500 close below its lower Bollinger Band, The NYMO close below its lower Bollinger Band and The VIX above its upper Bollinger Band. Remember this condition doesn’t always happen at an exact SP-500 bottom (but near it), as these indicators can remain outside their respective Bollinger Bands for 2 or 3 days as the SP-500 continues to drop. It takes a close back inside the their respective Bollinger Bands to confirm each SP-500 Buy Signals. See this SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX Chart Link: Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Wave Count Options: The primary (white/green) is 15% probable, alternate (blue) 55% probable and the alternate (red) is 30% probable.

  1. The original primary (white/green) wave count is calling for a powerful bull wave (3) of minor 3 or minor 5 of major [5]-P1 that began from 4570 and will move much higher (5331 target) for a P1-C3 top sometime in the summer to early fall 2022. The minor (2) wave could have competed today at 4530, near the 88% Fib retrace of 4533.  Note: the primary (white/green) wave count remains valid above 4495 and would be confirmed on a break above 4819.
  2. A new alternate (blue) wave count is that the minor 2 of major [5]-P1 wave is playing out as an expanded flat wave. Minute (a) was the drop from 4743 to 4495. Minute (b) was the move up from 4495 to 4819, where (b)=1.23(a) at 4800. Now the scary minute (c) of minor 2 drop from 4819 to the 62%/78% Fib targets of 4484/4417. Note (c)=1.38(a) at 4477 and (c)=1.62(a) at 4417 (which is more typical of an expanded flat).  Note: The alternate (blue) count remains valid above the major [4] low at 4279.
  3. A new alternate (red) wave count that has P1-C3 topped at 4819 and now the P2 correction to a least a 38% Fibonacci retrace of P1 down to 3821. The major [A]-P2 wave look to be headed for the 4191 pivot area. Minor 1 of major [A] completed at 4582 and minor 2 of major [A] retraced to 4749. Now the minor 3 wave down is underway with 1.62*minor 1 target at 4365. Minor 4 should retrace 23% to 4453 and minor 5=1 at 4215 to complete major [A]-P2  Note: A break below 4279 would confirm this alternate (red) wave count.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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