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January 18th, 2022: SP-500 Chart Udpate

Posted by pugsma on January 18, 2022

2:50 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4662 to 4632, quickly hit 4588, then drifted lower to 4570 (day’s low) and rallied to 4602…

Key Market Comment: It’s possible now that the P1-C3 top is in place at 4819 on January 4th, 2022. An important technical indicator here is that the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative $NYAD | SharpChart | StockCharts.com) that failed to make a new high along with SP-500 and is now rolling over hard. This nearly two month long negative divergence on a key market indicator of underlying strength. The NYSE A-D Line cumulative almost always negatively divergence significantly a key market top. This can correct itself, however it going to take very broad market rally of all sectors per the primary (white/green) wave count, which is calling for wave (3) of minor 3 move much higher.

Wave Count Options: The alternate (blue) count should be considered the base case (middle of the road) scenario with the highest probability (i.e. 45%). The primary (white/green) is 15% probable and the alternate (red) is 40% probable.

  1. The original primary (white/green) wave count is calling for a powerful bull wave (3) of minor 3 or minor 5 of major [5]-P1 that began from 4570 and will move much higher (5331 target) for a P1-C3 top sometime in the summer to early fall 2022. The minor (2) wave competed at 4570, near the 78% Fib retrace of 4567.  Note: the primary (white/green) wave count remains valid above 4495 and would be confirmed on a break above 4819 and then above 4894 (ED max).
  2. A new alternate (blue) wave count that can squeak out one more slightly higher high than 4819 as an ending diagonal major [5]-P1. The minor 4 wave of major [5] ended at 4570 (near the 78% Fib retrace of 4567) and should lead to one more higher high than 4819 for minor 5. This new slightly, higher high than 4819 cannot exceed 4894 for the ending diagonal to remain valid (i.e. M5 < M3 < M1).  Note: The alternate (blue) count remains valid above 4495 and would be confirmed on a break above 4819.
  3. A new alternate (red) wave count that has P1-C3 topped at 4819 and now the P2 correction to a least a 23% Fibonacci retrace of P1 down to 4215. The major [A]-P2 wave looks to have completed at 4582. The major [B]-P2 wave bounce completed at 4749, between the 62%/78% Fib retrace of major [A] at 4729/4767. The major [C] wave down is underway with a [C]=1.62[A] target at 4365.  Note: A break below 4495 would confirm this alternate (red) wave count.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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