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October 29th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 29, 2021

4:25 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4595 to 4574, quickly hit 4568, then reversed and rose all day to close near the high (4608) at 4605.

Typical Indicators:

$CPC (CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio): When the $CPC reaches the 0.65 to 0.60 area, the $SPX tends to trade sideway (green) or have a significant correction (red). My $SPX wave count reflects this stall or drop during November before a strong December. My technical analysis agrees with possible run up to 4646 in early November. Then a stall or drop to hold around the 4526 to 4507 area before a move up to 4800 by year end 2021.

NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: Is showing a -DIV wrt the $SPX price highs of 4599 on Tuesday, Oct 25th vs 4608 on Friday, October 4608.

The primary (white/green) count is that the minor 1 of major [5]-P1 is underway and near completion from the major [4]-P1 low at 4279. Minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 4430. Minute (2) competed at 4330, just below the 62% Fib of 4335. The minute (3) completed at 4599, just above (3)=1.62(1) at 4575. Minute (4) pulled back to 4552, just above the 23% Fib at 4537. Minute (4) can also be viewed as an ascending triangle that completed today 4589 and targets 4646. The minute (5) wave is underway and should rise to the (5)=0.62(1) target at 4646. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains as labeled remains valid above the minute (4) of minor 1 low of 4552. Breaking below 4552, will mean that minor 1 topped and the minor 2 wave pull-back is underway.

The alternate (blue) count has minor 1 of major [5]-P1-C3 completed at 4430 and minor 2 complete at 4330. The minor 3 wave is underway and nearing completion that should target the minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 at 4632. The minor 4 wave should retrace to the 38% Fib at 4526. Finally the minor 5=1 target is 4677 and the major [5]=0.5[1] target is at 4800. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count for a minor 4 correction remains valid above the minor 1 high of 4430.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

13 Responses to “October 29th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    SP500 Bulls need to check this amazing stat that triggered on Wed Oct 27th:

    https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket/status/1454570656222306307?s=21

  2. pugsma said

    Thus far today there is tremendous underlying market strength, below the weak large cap SPY and QQQ indices.

    NYSE A-D Line Cumulative is breaking out to a new all-time high wiping away it’s -DIV. Close matters.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p79963311521&a=386872354

  3. pugsma said

    As just commented on the IWM chart, it looks like IWM is wave minute (3) of minor 3 of major [5] headed much higher.

    This calls into question the current SP500 primary (white, green) count that a minor 1 wave is ending within a significant minor 2 wave pull-back next.

    The SP500 may already be in a minor 3 wave move much higher.
    Assuming minor 1 completed at 4430, minor 2 at 4330 and minor 3 = 1.62*minor 2 = 4726.

  4. pugsma said

    More year end bullish stats:

    https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1455145967129440256?s=21

    https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1455130685941985285?s=21

  5. BZ said

    nice work on the $REGN chart 🙏🏼💰😎

  6. pugsma said

    This SP500 stat is a perfect 8 for 8 (100%) and days no dip in Nov (actually up +3%) and a strong finish to 2021 (up +6%).

    https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1455248046233726980?s=21

  7. pugsma said

    House keeping: no need to update the charts tonight. SP500 nearing its minor 1 wave 4646 target and QQQ at its 387.5 minor 1 wave target as shown in my charts. However the IWM is breaking out in a minute (3) of minor 3 wave, so this could potentially change the SP500 and QQQ wave counts to a much more bullish near-term forecast. We’ll look into this primary wave count adjustment after another day of price action.

  8. Wayne Curtis said

    What about the CPC ratio Steve?
    Any weight in it to not rule out a pullback.
    Thanks

  9. pugsma said

    ES Futures shows a peak at 4620 and double bottom at 4585. Target is 4620 + (4620-4585) = 4655.

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