July 15th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on July 15, 2021
7:20 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4375 to 4369, dropped to 4341 and then rose to close at 4360.
A few Big Picture E-Wave count concepts for Cycle 3 of Super Cycle V:
1) Primary 1 (P1) of Cycle 3 (C3) should last longer that P1-C1 (March 2009 to April 2011, 2 years and 2 months). P1-C3 began in March 2020 and is 1 year and 4 months old. Thus, P1 likely has about 10 months to a year left to go into May 2022.
2) P1-C3 gain should be equal to or greater than P1-C1 (+106% gain). The P1-C3 gain is right at +100% here at 4383. A +106% gain is 4515, so 4515 or high should be the P1-C3 target.
3) The Pandemic caused a massive Monetary (US Fed) and Fiscal (US Govt) policy response that has pull ahead broad market gains beyond the historical +8% average. This will be corrected during the coming Primary 2 (P2) of Cycle (C3) wave. For example IF you assume the SP500 was priced “right” at 3394 in Feb 2019. Then today, 2.5 years later the SP500 should be at 3394 + 2.5*0.08 = 4073.
The current wave counts:
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the major [3]-P1-C3 continues to extended toward the very typical 1.62 Fibonacci extension of major [1] at 4652. Since the minor 4 of major [4] low at 4057 in May of 2021, the minor 5 wave has been sub-dividing into 5 minute degree waves. Minute (1) was a leading diagonal that end at 4257. The minute (2) retraced to the 50% Fib at 4164. The minute (3) completed at 4394. Wave minute (4) is underway and may have complete today at the 23% Fib retrace of 4341 or could retrace further to the 38% Fib at 4307. Once minute (4) completes, the final wave minute (5) of minor 5 head for the 4652 target to complete major [3]-P1-C3 sometime in late August. From the major [3] high at 4652, the major [4] wave should retrace to the 23%/38% Fib targets at 4262 to 4011 (the long awaited -8% to -14% correction) into mid-October. Then the final major [5]-P1-C3 wave will head towards 5000+ into the summer of 2022. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count as labeled remains valid above the (1) of minor 5 high at 4257.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 is topped here at 1.38 Fibonacci extension of major [1] at 4394. There are several key indicators, like the NYSE A-D Line cumulative that are showing negative divergence with respect to the price highs since July 2nd. This is red flag and could mean that the alternate (blue) count will play out to major [4] down to 23%/38% Fib at 4072 to 3856 (the long awaited -8 to -12% correction). Note: Breaking below 4257 will confirm this alternate (blue) wave count.
Have a great weekend !
SP-500 vs NYSE A-D Line Cumulative (From 7-13-21):
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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