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July 14th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on July 14, 2021

4:50 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4370 to 4380, hit a new intra-day high at 4394 and fell to close at 4375.

A few Big Picture E-Wave count concepts for Cycle 3 of Super Cycle V:

1) Primary 1 (P1) of Cycle 3 (C3) should last longer that P1-C1 (March 2009 to April 2011, 2 years abs 2 months). P1-C3 began in March 2020 abs is 1 year and 4 months old. Thus P1 likely has about 10 months to a year left to go into May 2022.

2) P1-C3 gain should be equal to or greater than P1-C1 (+106% gain). The P1-C3 gain is right at +100% here at 4383. At +106% gain is 4515

3) The Pandemic caused a massive Monetary (US Fed) and Fiscal (US Govt) policy response that has pull ahead broad market gains beyond the historical +8% average. This will be corrected during the coming Primary 2 (P2) of Cycle (C3) wave. For example IF you assume the SP500 was priced “right” at 3394 in Feb 2019. Then today 2.5 years later the SP500 should be at 3394 + 2.5*0.08 = 4073

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the major [3]-P1-C3 continues to extended toward the very typical 1.62 Fibonacci extension of major [1] at 4652. Since the minor 4 of major [4] low at 4057 in May of 2021, the minor 5 wave has been sub-dividing into 5 minute degree waves. Minute (1) was a leading diagonal that end at 4257. The minute (2) retraced to the 50% Fib at 4164. Now minute (3) is headed (3)=1.62(1) at 4488. Wave i-(3) ended at 4356. Wave ii-(3) at 4289. Wave iii-(3) is currently underway headed for iii=0.78i at 4439. Wave iv-(3) should retrace to the 23% Fib at 4405, before wave v-(3) head for 4488. Wave (4) should retrace to the 23% Fib at 4413, before the final wave (5) of minor 5 head for the 4652 target to complete major [3]-P1-C3 sometime in late August. From the major [3] high at 4652, the major [4] wave should retrace to the 23%/38% Fib targets at 4262 to 4011 (the long awaited -8% to -14% correction) into mid-October. Then the final major [5]-P1-C3 wave will head towards 5000+ into the summer of 2022. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count as labeled remains valid above the ii-(3) low of 4289.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 is topping here at 1.38 Fibonacci extension of major [1] at 4402. There are several key indicators, like the NYSE A-D Line cumulative that are showing negative divergence with respect to the price highs since July 2nd. This is red flat and could mean that the alternate (blue) count will play out to major [4] down to 23%/38% Fib at 4072 to 3856 (the long awaited -8 to -12% correction). Note: Breaking below 4289 will confirm this alternate (blue) wave count.

SP500 vs NYSE A-D Line Cumulative:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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