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May 20th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 20, 2021

6:45 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4116 to 4121, rallied most of the day to a days high of 4173, and then faded into the close to close at 4159.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [4]-P1-C3 ended at 4057 and played out as an expanded flat wave from mid-April to mid-May. This major [4] wave flat alternates with the major [2] zig-zag from June 2020. The major [5] wave up began from 4057 and the major [5]=0.62[1] target is at 4702. The minor 1 wave of major [5] is underway with minute (1) ending at 4183, minute (2) ending at 4061 and now minute (3) headed for the 1.62(1) target of 4265. Minute (4) should retrace to the 23% Fib at 4218 and the minute (5)=(1) target is at 4344 to complete minor 1 of major [5]-P3-C1.  Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid above the major [4] low at 4057.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4238, where [3]=1.23[1]. What’s been underway since is the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23% Fib target of 3945. For the major [4] move to the 23% Fib of 3945, the drop from 4238 to 4057 is the minor A wave of major [4]. The minor B wave completed between the 62%/78% Fib of 4169/4198 and 4183. The minor C wave drop to the major [4] 23% Fib target of 3945 is underway. From the major [4] low, there should be one more push up from major [5] to at least the major [5]=0.62[1] targets 4590. Note: Breaking above the 4183 then 4238 level invalidates the alternate (blue) count and confirms the primary (white/green) count.

The alternate (red) count is that P1-C3 topped at 4238. near where [5]=0.5[1]. The P2-C3 wave should retrace to at least the 23% Fib target at 3767. Note: This P2 wave lower will take several months (late summer to early fall) and is just getting underway.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up at -10 from -29 yesterday.  NYMO closes back above the zero line would be bullish and help to confirm the primary (white/green) wave count. The NYMO has thus far failed close back above the zero line, opening the door for the NYMO Based “SP500 Crash Signal” where the NYMO closes below -40 (closed at -66 last week) then fails to close above the back above zero line.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -6.8 % at 20.67. 
  3. NYSE Options Put/Call Ratio $CPC:  The $CPC spiked above 1.00 on the Wednesday, May 19th close. This was a 2nd $CPE spike and we got the 2nd SP500 drop to 4061. This type of 2nd $CPC above 1.00 often establishes an important bottom (see the chart below).
  4. Chart PatternPotential Bullish Double Bottom at 4061 with a target of 4305 on a break above 4183.
  5. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative peaked with the SP500 close of 4231 on Friday May 7th.

House Keeping: As I have done every year since starting this blog and service in October 2009, I take a break from posting new blog updates on Friday’s during the summer months in Chicago. We only get get about 3 months (June, July, August) of warm summer weather here and I love to be outdoors enjoying them. Beginning with Friday May 21st trough Friday September 3rd, there will not be a Friday blog post.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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