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April 5th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 5, 2021

12:20 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4019 to 4034, and rallied to 4079…

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO intra-day is up from +23 to near +30.  Multiple NYMO closes above +20 would confirm the primary (white/green) count minor 3 of major [5] wave higher. 
  2. VIX: The VIX intra-day is up +4.1% at 18.05.  A string of VIX closes below 20 would be indicative of a potential grinding minor 3 of of major [5] wave higher per the primary (white/green) count.
  3. Chart PatternPotential Bull Flag between 3985 and 3854 with a target of 4114.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line intra-day is at an all-time new high confirming the move higher in the SP-500.

Seasonality: Aligns with a minor 2 of major [5] low at 3854 the end of March and big rally for minor 3 of major [5] into the end of May, then a minor 4 pull-back in June and finally another rally for minor 5 of major [5] into August.

SP500 Seasonality

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave completed at 3854, which was a precise 50% Fibonacci retracement. The minor 3 wave up is just getting started with a target of 2.62*minor at 4538. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (1) should quickly target the 4114 area (bull flag target). The minute (2) pull-back will likely be shallow at the 38% Fib of 4015. The minute (3)=1.62(1) target is at 4436 The major [5]=[1] target for the completion of P1 is at 4764. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the 3854 low.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

11 Responses to “April 5th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Both the NYMO and NYSE A-D Line Cumulative closed in a position to confirmed the primary (green/white) wave count minor 3 wave up.

    Pull-backs in the SP500 will be muted and the grind higher into the summer is very likely.

  2. pugsma said

    SP500 closes significantly above it’s BB; history shows could be a little more up to 4114 target for ministry (1), then a Minute (2) pull-back to back-test 3984 breakout.

    https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz/status/1379188739688128514?s=21

  3. pugsma said

    Just how far can the SP500 price escape from it’s 50-day SMA.

    Case 1: On June 9th, 2020 the SP500 peaked at 3233 vs a 50-day SMA of 2872 for +11.9% Above.
    Case 2: On Sept 3rd, 2020 the SP500 peaked at 3588 vs a 50-sday SMA of 3305 for a +8.5% Above

    Today the 50-day SMA is at 3897 with the SP500 at 4082 for +4.7% Above

    Case 1: 3897 * 0.119 = 4360
    Case 2: 3897 * 0.085 = 4231

    So when you hear talking heads say this current move can’t go any higher before peaking, then they are clearly wrong.

  4. MS53 said

    The more interesting comparison to me is SPX price% above 200DSMA. Currently about 14.5%. If the primary unfolds in timeframe predicted, price will likely hit 20% above 200D by end of May .I can’t find an instance where that has occurred before.Is that a big concern? Could the ratio slow down the time frame for major 5 to keep price from getting out over its skis ?

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