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April 1st, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 1, 2021

4:20 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 3973 to 3992, rallied all day to close on the high at 4019 (now all-time closing high).

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up from -5 to near +20.  Will need to see NYMO closes back above the zero, then multiple closes above +20 before the primary (white/green) count minor 3 of major [5] wave higher to be can be confirmed. 
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -10.7% at 17.33. So far the VIX has failed to drop be 20 and remain there. A string of VIX closes below 20 would be indicative of a potential grinding minor 3 of of major [5] wave higher per the primary (white/green) count.
  3. Chart PatternPotential Bull Flag between 3985 and 3854 with a target of 4114.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line closed up significantly today and is just slightly below the level of its all-time high when the SP500 closed at 3976 on March 17th.  This remains a potential negative divergence and is warning sign that the alternate (blue) count could prevail. The A-D line has been in down-trend since March 17th. Will need to see the A-D make a new all-time high along with the SP-500 to confirm the primary (white/green) wave count.

Seasonality: Aligns with a minor 2 of major [5] low at 3854 here at the end of March and big rally for minor 3 of major [5] into the end of May, then a minor 4 pull-back in June and finally another rally for minor 5 of major [5] into August.

SP500 Seasonality

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P1-C3 wave completed at 3854, which was a precise 50% Fibonacci retracement. The minor 3 wave up is just getting started with a target of 1.62*minor at 4277. Within the minor 3 wave, the minute (1) should quickly target the 4114 area (bull flag target). This minute (1) wave up should produce a new NYSE A-D Line Cumulative all-time high plus an NYMO closes above +20 and confirm the primary (white/green) count. The major [5]=0.78[1] target for the completion of P1 is at 4535. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the 3854 low.

The alternate (blue) count that major [3]-P1-C3 is completing a bearish ending diagonal here near the major [3]=[1] target of 4007. The major [4] target area is the 23%/38% from 4007 at 3767/3611. Note: A break of the recent 3854 low will confirm the alternate (blue) count.

House Keeping: The US Markets are closed for the Easter Holiday on Friday, April 2nd. The next blog post will be on Monday, April 5th.

Have a great 3-day weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-50 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

5 Responses to “April 1st, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Vamsee Karanam said

    Thanks for all the great work you do Steve.
    Happy Easter and have a nice weekend sir!

  2. Denali92 said

    It did not take long for the SPX to make its annual high above its March high. That leaves March 2000 still as the only year that had its annual high in March… since 1948!

    On an “ODD” note, that is only the second time since 1960 that the SPX made a new all time high on the first trading day of April. Normally, there is some backing and filling that occurs at the end of March and in early April (quarter end dynamics) before the market builds up strength to power higher. The only other time was in 1961! Back then, the market continued a bit higher till April 17th and then topped out and spent 3 months pulling back in to July 1961 and before heading to new highs in November 1961.

    Overall, I see no significant historical edges right now.

    With respect to the “recency bias” that I have been tracking, the pattern recently has been end of month / beginning of month weakness, but clearly this did not occur in March. The last month that did not have end of month or beginning of month weakness was September (though that was well below the early September highs)…. while July 2020 / August 2020 is the last month that has seen such end of month / beginning of month strength in to new highs…

    ENJOY the long weekend!


    • pugsma said

      You don’t have to go all the way back to 1961 to see this type of SP500 behavior. As I’ve been showing for many months, years 2009-2010 and 2020-2021 have been almost identical.

      What happened in the first part of April 2010? A +4% rise to the equivalent of 4134 to complete major [3]-P1-C1. Then a big fall of -17% into June for major [4]-P1-C1 equivalent to 3431. Then a rally into May 2011 to complete P1-C1 at and equivalent of 4660+.

      That remains the alt (blue) count option here, even though the minor 5 of major [3] ending diagonal might get replaced with a classic 5-wave impulse to the bull flag target of 4114.


  3. pugsma said

    Just added a chart up for both BABA and FB in the 2021 Custom Chart Archive Service.

    • Don Patterson said

      thx. steve,,,Happy Easter…..u did watch the ucla gonz.game doesnt get any better..

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