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February 18th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on February 18, 2021

5:35 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 3931 to 3916, hit the days low at 3885, moved up to 3922 and closed at 3914.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near -30.  The NYMO is resetting after been six consecutive closes above the key +20 level (indicating tremendous underlying market breadth).
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +4.60% at 22.49.  The VIX closed below 20 on Friday, Feb 12th indicating the SP500 melt-up (primary green count) is likely underway.
  3. Chart PatternSmall Bull Flag on the 15-min chart between 3950 and 3885 with a target of 4015.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed with a new all-time high along with the SP500 close at all-time high of 3936 on Feb 12th. There likely won’t be a significant top in the SP500 until the A-D line cumulative negatively diverges with respect to the SP-500 price.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 1 of major [5]-P1-C3 completed at 3950. The minor 2 wave lower is underway and may have ended today at 3885 or will drop to the 38% Fib at 3853 (alternate blue). Once minor 2 completes, minor 3 will head towards 4300. The major [5]=[1] target is at 4457. Note: The primary (white/green) count for the minor 2 remains valid above the major [4] low at 3694.

The alternate (red) wave count is that major [5]-P1-C3 wave completed at 3950, just below the major [5]=[1] target of 3972. The 38% Fib retrace target for P2 is at 3282. Note: the alternate (red) count as labeled remains valid below the 3950 high.

DJIA-30 Seasonality Post-US Election Years: [Aligns with the primary (white/green) count)]

SP500 Seasonality

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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