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January 22nd, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 22, 2021

5:00 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped down from 3853 to 3845, dropped to the days low at 3830, rose to a days high of 3853 (closing the gap down) and dropped closed at 3841.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near -15.  The NYMO has struggled to re-gain and hold above the zero line and hasn’t close above +20, since the dip to -32 before Christmas.  This NYMO behavior is bearish and opens the door for larger SP500 drop.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +2.8% at 21.91. The VIX has been slowly creeping higher since early December as the SP500 slowly climbed, which is bearish negative divergence on the VIX vs SP500 price.
  3. Chart Pattern:  Bull Flag between 3827 and 3750 with an ideal measured move target at 3904 (so far hit 3861).
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed at a new all-time high today Wed, Jan 20th with the SP500 closing at 3852 all-time high. However on Thur, Jan 21st the SP500 closed at a higher all-time closing high of 3853, with the A-D line cumulative closing much lower set-up up a required negative divergence for a market top.


  1. After the end of January, the 4-year Presidential Cycle Seasonality is Negative for February.

Years 2009-2010 to Years 2020-2021 Comparison:

PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave is continuing to the original target at 3916, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1. Once minor 3 completes, the minor 4 wave lower should retrace to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3759/3657. From there the minor 5 of major [5] wave should target major [5]=[1] at 3972 . Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the wave ii-(5) of minor 3 of major [5] low at 3750.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that minute (5) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave is either complete at 3861 or very near complete. Wave minute (5) of minor 5 is underway with wave i-(5) reaching 3827. Wave ii-(5) completed at 3750, near the 50% Fib of 3745. The wave iii-(5) completed at 3860. Waves iv-(5) and v-(5) could have completed at 3845 and 3861, respectively. Or wave iv-(5) completed today at 3830, just above the 3827 invalidation point. And now wave v-(5) will complete next week at 3874, where (5)=0.62(1). Once the major [3] wave completes, the major [4] targets are the 23%/38% Fibs at 3718/3533. Once major [4] completes, the major [5]=[1] wave targets are 4216/4382.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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