January 22nd, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on January 22, 2021
5:00 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped down from 3853 to 3845, dropped to the days low at 3830, rose to a days high of 3853 (closing the gap down) and dropped closed at 3841.
Market Technical Notes:
- NYMO: The NYMO closed down near -15. The NYMO has struggled to re-gain and hold above the zero line and hasn’t close above +20, since the dip to -32 before Christmas. This NYMO behavior is bearish and opens the door for larger SP500 drop.
- VIX: The VIX closed up +2.8% at 21.91. The VIX has been slowly creeping higher since early December as the SP500 slowly climbed, which is bearish negative divergence on the VIX vs SP500 price.
- Chart Pattern: Bull Flag between 3827 and 3750 with an ideal measured move target at 3904 (so far hit 3861).
- NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed at a new all-time high today Wed, Jan 20th with the SP500 closing at 3852 all-time high. However on Thur, Jan 21st the SP500 closed at a higher all-time closing high of 3853, with the A-D line cumulative closing much lower set-up up a required negative divergence for a market top.
Seasonality:
- After the end of January, the 4-year Presidential Cycle Seasonality is Negative for February.
Years 2009-2010 to Years 2020-2021 Comparison:
PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave is continuing to the original target at 3916, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1. Once minor 3 completes, the minor 4 wave lower should retrace to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3759/3657. From there the minor 5 of major [5] wave should target major [5]=[1] at 3972 . Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the wave ii-(5) of minor 3 of major [5] low at 3750.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that minute (5) of minor 5 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave is either complete at 3861 or very near complete. Wave minute (5) of minor 5 is underway with wave i-(5) reaching 3827. Wave ii-(5) completed at 3750, near the 50% Fib of 3745. The wave iii-(5) completed at 3860. Waves iv-(5) and v-(5) could have completed at 3845 and 3861, respectively. Or wave iv-(5) completed today at 3830, just above the 3827 invalidation point. And now wave v-(5) will complete next week at 3874, where (5)=0.62(1). Once the major [3] wave completes, the major [4] targets are the 23%/38% Fibs at 3718/3533. Once major [4] completes, the major [5]=[1] wave targets are 4216/4382.
Have a great weekend !
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
You must be logged in to post a comment.