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January 20th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 20, 2021

5:25 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped up from 3803 to 3816, rose steadily higher to a days high of 3860 (new all-time high) and closed at 3852 (new daily closing high)

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near +10.  The NYMO has struggled to re-gain and hold above the zero line and hasn’t close above +20, since the dip to -32 before Christmas.  This NYMO behavior is bearish and opens the door for larger SP500 drop.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -7.1% at 21.58. The VIX has been slowly creeping higher since early December as the SP500 slowly climbed, which is bearish negative divergence on the VIX vs SP500 price.
  3. Chart Pattern:  Bull Flag between 3827 and 3750 with a target at 3904.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed at a new all-time high today Wed, Jan 20th with the SP500 closing at 3852 all-time high.

Seasonality:

  1. After the end of January, the 4-year Presidential Cycle Seasonality is Negative for February.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave is continuing to the original target at 3916, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1. Once minor 3 completes, the minor 4 wave lower should retrace to the 23%/38% Fib targets of 3759/3657. From there the minor 5 of major [5] wave should target major [5]=[1] at 3972 . Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the wave ii-(5) of minor 3 of major [5] low at 3750.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 wave up is still underway will top near the major [3]=1.62[1] target of 4003, where [3]=1.62[1]. Wave minute (4) of minor 5 of major [3] completed at 3663. Wave minute (5) of minor 5 is underway with wave i-(5) reaching 3828. Wave ii-(5) is underway and may have completed today at 3750 near the 50% Fib of 3745. The wave iii-(5) target is 3952, where iii=1.23*i. The minute (5)=(1) target is 4004, which agrees with the major [3]=1.62[1] target of 4003. Once major [3] completes, the major [4] targets are the 23%/38% Fibs at 3718/3533. Once major [4] completes, the major [5]=[1] targets are 4296/4481. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above the wave ii-(5) of minor 5 of major [3] low at 3750.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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