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December 28th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on December 28, 2020

4:45 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped up from 3703 to 3723 and climbed steadily to the days high of 3741, then ended at 3735.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed flat near -5 from -31 on Tuesday Dec 22nd.  The NYMO closed two consecutive days below its lower BB on Mon, Dec 21st and Tues, Dec 22nd then closed back inside its lower BB today. This is a NYMO based confirmed SP500 Buy signal.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +0.8% at 21.70.  The VIX closed Monday, Dec 21st above its upper BB, setting up a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy trigger. The VIX closed back below its upper BB Tues, Dec 22nd, confirming the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal. Wed, Dec 23rd the VIX closed red, double confirming the VIX Sell, SP-500 Buy signal.
  3. Chart Pattern:  Potential bullish consolidation rectangle from 3633 to 3712 (79 points). Bullish target is 3712 + (3712-3633) = 3791.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative rose today and made a new all-time high with the SP-500 also making an all-time high 3741.  There likely wont be a significant top in the SP-500 without a negative divergence on the A-D line vs the SP-500 price.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave up is underway that should target 3916, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 completed at 3646 and wave minute (2) at 3512. Wave minute (3) up underway with (3)=0.78(1) target at 3833. Within minute (3), wave i ended at 3629, wave ii ended at 3544, wave iii ended at 3712, where iii=1.62*i and wave iv ended at 3637. Wave v-(3) is underway, where v=1.62*i at 3827.  The major [5]=[1] target is 3972 to complete P1-C3. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the wave iv-(3) low at 3633.

The possible alternate (blue) wave outcome is that the the major [5] wave will extend to at least 1.62*[1]. Wave major [3] at 821 points was only slightly longer (1.08) than major [1] at 763 points. Often when major [3] is weak, the major [5] wave will extend. The major [5]=1.62[1] extension target is at 4445. In this scenario, this first wave up from the major [4] low at 3234 to 3727 thus far is only a minor 1 wave as a leading diagonal. Minor 1 is targeting minute (5)=0.78(1) at 3793 (LD max 3833). The minor 2 correction should drop to a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3540 to 3481 into mid-January. From there, the minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is at 4443 into late year 2021.

The must less likely alternate (red) wave count scenario is major [5]-P1-C1 is targeting 3793, where minor 5=0.78*minor 1 (ED max 3833) as an ending diagonal. From the P1 top, there should then be a significant P2 correction to at least a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3183/2992. Note: It will take a break below the 3501 pivot to make this alternate (red) wave count more likely and a break below 3234 to confirm it.

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SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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