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December 23rd, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on December 23, 2020

4:45 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped up from 3687 to 3693 and climbed steadily to the days high of 3711. then dropped in the final 10 mins to close at 3690.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near -10 from -31 on Tuesday, but more importantly back inside its lower BB.  The NYMO closed two consecutive days below its lower BB on Mon, Dec 21st and Tues, Dec 22nd then closed back inside its lower BB today. This is a NYMO based confirmed SP500 Buy signal.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -3.8% at 23.31.  The VIX closed Monday, Dec 21st above its upper BB, setting up a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy trigger. The VIX closed today back below its upper BB Tues, Dec 22nd, confirming the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal. Today the VIX closed red, double confirming the VIX Sell, SP-500 Buy signal.
  3. Chart Pattern:  Potential bullish consolidation rectangle from 3633 to 3712 (79 points). Bullish target is 3712 + (3712-3633) = 3791.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative rose today and is near a new all-time high with the SP-500 below its 3727 all-time high.  There likely wont be a significant top in the SP-500 without a negative divergence on the A-D line vs the SP-500 price.
SP500 vs NYMO vs VIX

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave up is underway that should target 3916, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 completed at 3646 and wave minute (2) at 3512. Wave minute (3) up underway with (3)=0.78(1) target at 3833. Within minute (3), wave i ended at 3629, wave ii ended at 3544, wave iii ended at 3712, where iii=1.62*i and wave iv ended at 3677. Wave v-(3) is underway, where v=i at 3754 to v=1.62*i at 3827.  The major [5]=[1] target is 3972 to complete P1-C3. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the wave iv-(3) low at 3633.

The possible alternate (blue) wave outcome is that the the major [5] wave will extend to at least 1.62*[1]. Wave major [3] at 821 points was only slightly longer (1.08) than major [1] at 763 points. Often when major [3] is weak, the major [5] wave will extend. The major [5]=1.62[1] extension target is at 4445. In this scenario, this first wave up from the major [4] low at 3234 to 3727 thus far is only a minor 1 wave as a leading diagonal. Minor 1 could have ended at 3727 or make a slightly higher high near 3791 (max 3833). The minor 2 correction should drop to a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3540 to 3481 into mid-January. From there, the minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is at 4443 into late year 2021.

The must less likely alternate (red) wave count scenario is major [5]-P1-C1 has topped at 3727 or will be is topping soon at 3791 below 3833 (max) as an ending diagonal. From the P1 top, there should then be a significant P2 correction to at least a 38%/50% Fib retrace at 3183/2992. Note: It will take a break below the 3501 pivot to make this alternate (red) wave count more likely and a break below 3234 to confirm it.

Housing Keeping:  1) If you are planning to remain with the service for year 2021, then you should have e-mail from Mon, Dec 21st, with the details and instructions for how to sign-up. The old monthly password system is being discontinued and you will have a membership account with the blog for year 2021 that will provide you access to the premium service and custom chart service. To become a paid 2021 member you MUST purchase and register via the PUG SMA Shop https://pugsma.com/shop/ 2) The next blog update will be on Monday, Dec 28th.

Merry Christmas !!! Happy Holidays !!

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly Chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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