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November 6th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on November 6, 2020

Technical Analysis Blog | PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

6:30 pm EST:  The SP-500 price opened flat from 3510, dropped quickly to the days lows of 3484, then rose all day to the days high of 3522 and closed at 3509.

Notes: 

  1. NYMO:  The NYMO closed down at +22 from +40 on Thursday, making it two consecutives days above +20.  The NYMO needs to close above +20 for several days to confirm a new impulse minor 3 of major [3] wave higher.
  2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed down -10% at 24.86. The VIX needs to drop below 25 (accomplished today) and more importantly below 20 to confirm the minor 3 of major [3] wave move higher than 3588.
  3. Chart PatternPotential bullish contracting triangle or the daily chart.
  4. Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT): The ZBT level closed at 0.54 after hitting 0.57 on Thursday. The ZBT signal closed below 0.40 on Wednesday Oct 28th. It has 10 days (Wed Nov 11th) to close above 0.615 and trigger a rare ZBT signal (very bullish).
  5. The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative:  The A-D line made a new all-high high on Oct 12th with the SP500 at 3550 still below its all-time high of 3588.  This strongly suggests that eventually (note: it can take a few months) the SP-500 will break-out to a new all-time high above 3588.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [3]-P1-C3 completed at 3234. The minor 3 wave up is underway that should target 3919, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 should target wave v=i at 3580. Within minute (1), wave i hit 3330, wave ii corrected to 3280. Wave iii completed at 3529, where iii=2.62i, then wave iv completed at 3384. The wave v=i target is at 3580. Once minute (1) completes, the minute (2) wave will retrace to 38%/50% at 3447 to 3404.  Note: this primary (white/green) wave count remains valid above the minor 2 wave low at 3234.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that this consolidation between 3588 and 3209 is a bullish contracting triangle for major [4]-P1-C3. This means that the SP-500 is still moving higher than 3588, but only in a major [5] wave, not a major [3] wave. The major [4] triangle completed minor A at 3209, minor and B at 3550. The minor C wave completed at 3234. The minor D wave is likely complete at 3529. The final minor E wave should complete major [4] around the 3394/3338 pivot area.  Note: the alternate (blue) count major [4] triangle remains valid below the minor B wave high of 3550.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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