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October 26th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 26, 2020

4:45 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped down from 3465 to 3442, then fell most of the day to a low at 3365 and rallied in the final two hours lose at 3401.

Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down from +12 on Friday to near -30 Need to see the NYMO close multiple times above +20 to confirm the minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave higher.
  2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed up +18% at 32.46.  Note: The VIX closed above its upper Bollinger Band setting up a potential SP500 Buy signal, that will be triggered on a VIX closed back below its upper BB. Need to see the VIX drop below 25 then below 20 before we can safely say we have entered the grinding higher minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave.
  3. Chart PatternNone.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [3]-P1-C3 is on going towards the 62% Fib retracement of minor 1 at 3339 and may have ended today at 3365 or will need one more push lower. Minute (a) of minor 2 completed at 3415 as a leading diagonal. Minute (b) is complete at 3466 at the 38% Fib. Minute (c) of minor 2 wave will target the (c)=0.78(a)=3361 to (c)=(a)= 3331 area. Note: this primary (white/green) wave count for minor 2 of major [3] remains valid above the major [2] low of 3209.

The alternate (red) wave count is that minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave is complete at 3550, just above the 88% Fib at 3543. The minor C of major [2] wave down will make a new low below 3209. The target area is where minor C = A at 3171 and then the rising 200-day SMA at 3130 and the 38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3058.  Wave minute (1) of minor C wave completed at 3415 as a leading diagonal. The minute (2) completed at 3366 and the 38% Fib retracement. The minute (3) wave down is underway and should target the (3)=1.62(1) at 3247, followed by a 23% retrace for minute (4) to 3297 and finally a minute (5) wave drop to the 3171 minor C=A target. Note: this alternate (red) wave count for minute (3) of minor C of major [2] remains valid below the minute (2) of minor C high of 3466.

5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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