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October 13th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 13, 2020

4:40 pm EST:  The SP-500 price opened flat from 3535, then drifted lower all day to hit 3501, rallied to 3525 and closed at 3512.

Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO dropped significantly today from +57 to close near +30.
  2. VIX: Today the VIX closed up 4% at 26.07. Need to see the VIX drop below 20 for the grinding minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave higher.
  3. Chart PatternThere is a confirmed bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) pattern on the 15-min chart with HEAD at 3209 and Neckline at 3430.  The typical IHS reaches at least the 62% of the base height on top of the neckline (3430 + 0.62(3430-3209) = 3567. The full measured move of the IHS is 3430 + (3430-3209) = 3651.

The primary (white/green) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 up is underway off the major [2] low at 3209.  Minor 1 wave should target the area slightly above the all-time high of 3588 near 3640.   Wave minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3397.  The minute (2) played out as a running flat pull-back (a=3324, b=3421, c=3354) where c=a at 3358. The minute (3) ended at 3550, where (3)=1.23(1) = 3555,. The minute (4) wave is underway that could have ended today at 3501 at the 23% Fib or will need to drop to the 38% Fib at 3464. Once minute (4) is complete, the minute (5)=0.62(1) target is 3581 to 3618.  Once minor 1 of major [3] completes near the 3588, the minor 2 wave should retrace to 50%/62% Fibs at 3414/3364. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above the 3397 minute (1) high.

The alternate (blue) wave count minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave looks to be complete at 3550, just above the 88% Fib at 3543. The minor C of major [2] down will make a new low below 3209. The target area is at the 38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3058. The rising 200-day SMA is 3117 and the minor C=A at 3171. Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the major [1] high of 3588.

House Keeping: 1) I’m going to be on the road Wednesday Oct 14th and Thursday Oct 15th helping my oldest daughter move from Boston to St Louis. Wednesday there will be no blog update. There could be a blog update on Thursday but late in the day. 2) Friday October 16th is my birthday, I will make a blog update on Friday, Oct 16th. 3) The wife and I leaving for a short vacation to Florida on Sunday Oct 18th through Thursday Oct 22nd. There will likely be no blog updates those days. I will be back at home on Friday, Oct 23rd and will make a blog update. As always I will monitor the markets through my iPhone while I’m away from home. I’ll comment and respond to comments when I can.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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