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September 22nd, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 22, 2020

5:45 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from form 3218 to 3295, quickly hit 3303, dropped to 3271, then rose the rest of the day to a high at 3320 and closed at 3315.

Note: 

  1. Yesterday we got the 2nd lower closing low at 3281, below the 3332 close from Sept 8th.   When the SP500 closed at 3332 on Tuesday Sept 8th the NYMO closed at -68.  Today the NYMO closed at roughly -58. That is a potential strong NYMO positive divergence (+DIV) with respect to the new SP500 closing low of 3281, which is potentially bullish for the SP500.  It will take a NYMO close above today’s close on Tuesday to confirm the NYMO +DIV.  CONFIRMED with NYMO closing at roughly -45.
  2. Also the VIX closed today at roughly 28 versus above 30 on Tuesday Sept 8th.  That is a potential VIX negative divergence (-DIV), which is also bullish for the SP500.  It will take a VIX close below today’s close on Tuesday to confirm the -DIV.  CONFIRMED with VIX closing at -26.86.
  3. Because of notes 1 and 2 above, the alternate (blue) count is more probably that the the primary (white/green).   However, I will wait for the SP-500 price to break above the key level of 3329 before removing the primary (white/green) and replacing it with the alt(blue).

The primary (white/green) count is that minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave ended at 3429 as an expanded flat from the minor A low of 3350.  From the minor B high at 3429, the minor C wave lower should reach the 3258 to 3154 pivot area.  The Minor C=A target is 3191 and the C=1.62A = 3043.  Wave minute (1) of minor C completed at 3329.  Wave minute (2) retraced to 3362.  Wave minute (3) ended at 3229, where (3)=1.38(1).  Wave (4) of minor C has to have ended today at 3320, as it can’t enter the price of the minute (1) wave at 3329.  Thus, the final minute (5) wave down must gap down tomorrow and head for to the 3191 minor C=A target.  The 23% to 38% Fib retrace of major [1] target for major [2] is at 3267 to 3057.  Note: the primary (white/green) wave count minute (4) wave remains valid below the minute (1) of minor C low at 3329.  Above 3329, the alternate (blue) count becomes the primary.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [2]-P1-C3 completed at 3229 as a sharp -10% correction.   The minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave up to the all-time high of 3588 should be underway.  The minute (1) wave of minor 1 could have ended today at 3320 or could reach the 3338 pivot area.  If wave minute (1) ended today at 3320, then the 50% Fib retrace for wave  minute (2) is at 3275.  Wave minute (3) = 2.62(1) target is at 3513.   Wave minute (4) 23% Fib is at 3458 and the minute (5)=(1) target is 3549 or close to the 3588 all-time high.   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above the major [2] low at 3229.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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