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June 30th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on June 30, 2020

5:00 pm EST:  The SP-500 opened flat from 3053, dipped to 3048 (day’s low) and rallied to close at 3100 near the day’s high of 3108.

The primary (white/green) count that minute (2) of minor 5 of major [1]-P1-C3 low is in place at 3000, which was at the 88% Fib of 2999 and the triple top (3156) target of 2996.   The minute (3) wave of minor 5 is underway with conservative target of (3)=1.23(1) at 3234.  The minor 5 target range is from minor 5 = 0.62, 0.78, or 1.0 * minor 1 at 3242, 3313, or 3412.  The primary (green) count is valid above the minute (2) low at 3000.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [2]-P1-C3 has been underway since the early June 3233 high and is looking to complete a single Zig-Zag at the minor C=A target of 2889.  The minor B wave looks to be forming a contracting triangle pattern.  Once the triangle is complete the minor C wave should drop to the 2872 pivot area to complete major [2].  The alternate (blue) count remains valid below minute (a) of minor B high at 3156.

House Keeping:  For Quarterly Premium Service Subscribers, Q2-2020 (Apr-June) ended today.   An e-mail was sent out on Monday with payment options for Q3-2020 (July-Sept) or Q3/Q4 (July-Dec).

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

9 Responses to “June 30th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Steve, thanks for the in-depth analysis as always. Couple of novice questions to trouble you:

    1. Fully understanding it’s difficult to time the waves, what are the odds of 5-[1]-P1-C3 completing around the week ending 17-Jul or a little before/after? Trying to see if this end synchronizes with a theory floating around that SPX (and other indices) will take the elevator down around that time.
    2. How difficult is it to call the end of a (minor) wave 5? Can we know only when a serious U-turn (i.e. the corrective wave) has started or can momentum provide guidance ahead of time? Asking because while I recognize you don’t trade corrective waves, some of us would appreciate a ‘Giddy Down’ call (no pun intended)

  2. pugsma said

    Pfizer reports 24 of 24 low dose COVID-19 vaccine patients produced neutralizing antibodies 1.8 to 2.8 times a recovered COVID-19 patient.

    Wow, just wow!!!

    • R Swaim said

      September is only 2 months away:

      “University of Oxford in England. A clinical trial with more than 500 participants began in late April. Oxford officials said the potential vaccine has an 80 percent chance for success and could be available as early as September. The vaccine uses a modified virus to trigger the immune system. The university has partnered with pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca. The company reported in mid-May the vaccine was effective against COVID-19 after it was given to six rhesus macaque monkeys. The company expects to begin a late-stage clinical trial by the middle of this year. Officials said in mid-May that if the clinical trial is successful, they could deliver 30 million doses by September.”

      From today’s https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-exactly-where-were-at-with-vaccines-and-treatments-for-covid-19#Speeding-up-vaccine-development

      • pugsma said

        This readout just now from Oxford less optimist about delivering a wide use vaccine as early as September.

  3. pugsma said

    In order to allow these “odd” stats to continued be reported here, it needs to be more than a sample of 1 to 3. That small size is not a valid sample size to draw conclusions. Samples of 5 minimum to 10+ is required. I also don’t want to distract subscribers from my work. Thanks.

  4. pugsma said

    July:

  5. pugsma said

    Manufacturing ISM jumps to 52.6 now in expansion mode above 50.

    Impressive!

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