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May 21st, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 21, 2020

3:55 pm EST:  The SP-500 opened flat around 2971, dipped to 2938 by mid-day and then traded sideways between 2945 and 2960.

The primary (green/white) wave count is that minute (1) of minor 5 of major [1]-P1-C3 completed at 2980.  An impressive 213 point, 5-wave impulse off the minor 4 low at 2767.   The minute (2) wave should retrace to the 38%/50% Fib target area of 2899 to 2874.  From there, minute (3) will break above 2980.   The minor 5 completion targets are at 0.62*minor = 3042, 0.78*minor 1 = 3112 and equal to minor 1 at 3212.  The primary (green) wave count remain valid for the minute (2) wave of minor 5 above the minor 4 low of 2767.  However, it’s unlikely to break below the area of rising 13-day EMA (2902) to 34-day EMA (2854).

The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 5 of major [1]-P1-C3 completed at 2980.   Thus, the major [2] correction is underway.   The initial target for the minor A of major [2] wave is at the 2757 pivot, which should be a 5-wave impulse lower.   I’m expecting that the major [2] wave will retrace to the 50%/62% Fib area of 2588 to 2491 into the July time frame.   The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the 2980 high and is confirmed on a break below 2767.

House Keeping:  I’m going to be off work on Friday, May 22nd and Monday, May 25th is the Memorial Day Holiday in the USA (markets are closed).  The next blog update will be Tuesday, May 26th.   Have a great long holiday weekend!

Some things that at the moment point to a major [1] wave top.

1. Positive Divergence (+DIV) on the VIX, a negative for SP500.
2. Negative Divergence (-DIV) on the NYMO, a negative for SP500.
3. Negative Divergence (-DIV) on NYSE A-D Line Cumulative, a negative for SP500.

These divergences can resolve, but right now they are present.

SP-500  5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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